BTC Resuming the down trend. My Long term SWING play setup

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
*Bias is short, I am not* As you can tell, from the last update, BTC has just not been able to have a decent push up to that massive red trendline . Even with a powerful formation like the Inverse head and Shoulders and gradual moves up, it still failed to break 6.8k.

While I do believe BTC is going to 4k, it's been really surprising it hasn't been able to push up to this major trendline . Which is really not a good sign.

Right now we have the Daily MACD about to cross to the downside and RSI moving down in this wedge-like pattern.

Remember, in this bear market we want to control our risk as we learned again from the inverse head and shoulder's pattern. As confident as it seems we will get a move for our trade set up, sometimes it doesn't happen.

I will be setting up martingale points down above 5k, 4k and 3k. with the portfolio weightings at roughly 20%-30%-40%. (yes it doesn't add up to 100%, it's a rough number of what i am doing) I have similar set ups on ETH and LTC. While this could go up from here or a bounce from 5.7k, i will be following this downward trendline for my first target area.

I imagine it will take a long time to get here.

I am going to enjoy the summer. Remember, it's better to be out of the market wishing than you were in, than in the market wishing you were out.

Happy Trading.


Comment: Brief update: I am still on the sideline and will remain so for a while.

So here's the thing. BTC is going up on BlackRock and some Coinbase news a couple hours ago, but all blackrock said is that they are investigating it more, NOT dumping a ton of money into it. I am just really skeptical that this move won't be sustained, when we ALREADY know all the major firms are looking into it. Coinbase announced that they have regulatory approval, but is that good or bad for the crypto world? Depends who you ask I guess.

Technically if we break 6.8k and get a solid close, it should keep going up. However, Now that we are getting closer to this massive trendline, the R:R goes down, so for me, the trade becomes less appealing at this point. We could go up, but I worry that this is hype and we will just follow the green line down. So I want to see how things play out for a few weeks and reassess after that.

All my posts are not intended as financial advice, just me sharing what i am doing with my research and positions. Don't stress, pick your points and don't use leverage.


this time I didn't feel you were right, and I bet to the upside..
Sherem emmanueltorresg
@emmanueltorresg, Well done, glad you made some money!
@Sherem, Thank you! .. Yesterday I was looking at the Inverse Head and Shoulders and I was thinking: this is the signal.
Sherem emmanueltorresg
@emmanueltorresg, Yeah, I was just early with my Inverse Head and shoulders call!
Thanks for the update Sherem. I agree with you. Things to do not feel right, and I detect undue euphoria on the rise of a few hundred dollars by obviously a big player or 2. No panic and capitulation in this bear (yet). With regard to the ETfs I have been using one running in Sweden for sometime (XBT Provider) for BTC and ETH (since mid 2017). They don't buy up lots of BTC as some have been saying Black Rock will, they buy and store 'physical' BTC and ETH and give you a fair value contract once someone has bought, and sell once the person sells. The big advantage in UK is you can put these EFTs into your self invested pension fund, and make potentially big capital gains without tax (tax only comes when you reach retirement). So long term if the rules are the same in USA when it is agreed then it will allow much more capital to be easily transferred to BTC and ETH (ie without wallets which is a technological hurdle for some). But shorter term ( 3 - 6 months after approval) I agree there will be no significant difference. Keep up the good work and thanks for all of it.
I totally agree. With BTC at 6740, the risk is at the absolute highest. If it breaks through 6800, then it's time to buy. if this is really about to be the big move up, there will be plenty of time to make money later. Don't be greedy!
Any update please?
Sherem Matt27
@Matt27, just watch for that 6.8k level to break for a move higher. I am sitting on the sidelines for a while.
+3 Reply
It appears that everything in the crypto market is on fire. And not in a good way. :)

I think the large players, Wall Street, are still waiting for the SEC, CFTC, IRS et al to finalize the rules before they jump in. Wall Street wants to pay as little tax as possible, so they need to know which cryptos to avoid. Until that happens, a few whales will drive the market down, spike it up and gobble up the little fish.
+1 Reply
@BDG, Yeah such a lack of volatility.... ugh...
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