According to bollinger bands squeeze, and previous patterns in bitcoin history, it took about 180 days after each FOMO top for the market to decide what it wants next.
If we count 180 days after the 2017's crash, we are around beginning of june. It's pretty realistic if you look at bollinger bands going narrow very quickly now, and volatility cooling down finally.
1st option: back to 2013, the market has decided to make a 800% jump after the correction If this case repeat, it would give bitcoin between 60k and 100k USD before EOY.
2nd option: back to 2014, the market has decided to make a looooong correction down, with a boring winter. This case would give bitcoin very low, probably between 2500 to 5000$, and as many experts suppose, it would be a massive crypto winter where most shitcoin and silly altcoins would die.
I think for the moment we have absolutely no way to guess which of these 2 options will take place. Actually I think these 2 scnerio will happen for sure, but impossible to know which one first. I think the crypto winter with shitcoins dying is essential for the sake for the blockchain and crypto mass adoption, just like the internet bubble burst. We need a strong cleaning to keep the strong project.
There is only 2 things I'm 99% sure about:
- One of the 2 scenario is very most likely this year, I don't see another one - The massive bull run is coming in the long term, no matter what happen !
The only question, is to enter long now, or wait...