An Ascending Triangle (AT) is potentially forming. Volume is dropping, which is also supports the likelihood of its formation. ATs are typically continuation formations, so the likelihood is that this will break up but it also presents me with a short opportunity if it breaks down.
If you read through my post you will see that my aim is to buy back into what could be a reversal to bull market but do it with what I call localised trades which would still allow me to exit at a profit if the reversal falters.
Entry I will buy on a volume backed breakout to the top side and potentially sell on the same to the bottom side. However, because of the relative localised resistance and support, the targets are quite close, making the risk ratio tight. I therefore want to see another phase of accumulation before I would enter this. That will narrow the entry-stop gap and provide a higher risk reward. i.e. if we break on this current phase up, I will not enter.
Target / Exit Buy target: Just below the resistance at 9500, which also is supported by 0.5 fib of the 5th bear wave and is the bottom of wave 3.
Sell target: The bottom of this triangle, which is supported by the 0.382 of the last leg the 5th bear wave.
In both cases I would be looking to hold my position unless I see significant resistance at these areas. In that case I would look to either take some or all profit.
Stop Buy: Below the triangle Sell: Above the triangle
p.s. when I say short/sell I am talking about selling coins I bought at the bottom of this correction.
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Looks like the break was rejected and I think we will see it find support again at the bottom of the asc triangle. What action I take now depends on how quickly this moves to the support. If it is sharp, the risk reward is still too high for me to sell and I'll wait to see if it makes another attempt to break the resistance for a buy.
p.s. You'll note that some other coins like ETH also attempted to break and got a bit further but are now being pulled back by BTC.
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Quick post. We broke the resistance without fully forming the Asc Tri, which meant the risk reward trade didn't work for me. We are now retesting it to potentially turn resistance to support. A bounce back from support is a trade I am liking. Same target as before but now Stop is just below the new support. Good risk reward. I've had too many beers to take it now, but any other time I probably would.
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Forgot to say, if I was buying, I'd wait for the bounce first!
Trade active
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I couldn't resist. Small position because of my mental state.
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I've moved my stop loss to just below the diagonal support line and will continue to update it as time passes.
Trade closed: stop reached
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I think we could be forming an ABC corrective wave, looking to 7250 or 6000 to establish a higher low or bottom. IF these two areas hold it could be good news medium term for the bulls.
@qdoc, if my other posts about history repeating itself come to pass, ETH has to breakout against BTC. However, I don't see that happening until the bears' grip on BTC has been tempered. I'm working on the basis that ETH will retrace the same way as BTC, to around 600 or maybe the 720 support area. I'll update more next week, but I think Winter Is Coming for BTC, where it will trade side ways for approximately 2-3 months. That's the time I'm expecting to see ETH breakout and the Coronation of our new Queen.
Doc-al-Citadel
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@monkia, yes for sure. flippening later bro. I just want cheap ether now ;-)
evangel94
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Was it just luck or did i found out how RSI works even if its just a 5 min chart? thank you very much
monkia
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@evangel94, yes that's it :-). Although typically you would want to see this pattern in RSI but with the second candle lower rather than level.
evangel94
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how can i post a chart here? thanks
;-)
monkia
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@evangel94, you can do your chart, then use the camera icon on the bottom right to do a screen shot. It will give you a link. Paste the link in a comment.
mpastas3
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Thanks for your updates monkia. Personally I find this much more useful compared to some TOP rated traders.
gusccbb
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Hi, do you think that resistance is not broken in EMA50 4H in $ 8.3k and that bounce will lead to test support again $ 7.5 k? If green candle were closed 4Hs on EMA50 would be a sign of uptrend and good point to enter towards $ 9.5k? He has bounced several times on that resistance this week. Is that resistance today the key? Tks
monkia
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@gusccbb, yes, it could definitely happen like you say because of rejection of 4HR 50EMA. However, it could just be consolidating before pushing up again to test the 4HR EMA again. I'd prefer to wait for the pattern to fulfil to give me more reassurance. I would consider the following short term a good sign on 1HR timeframe: a close above 8.65k and then a retest and rejection down to 8.65k again.