Boon2
Short

BTCUSD H4 Update, Z down?

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
H4 were in a tricky spot!
If your still in the internal wave C buy from my previous idea you would be at break even at the very least, as of this point I would suggest to take it all off for small profit and wait for next setup or at least take half off. We gained nice profit in wave A and a little profit in the C wave which is nothing to be ashamed of when were trading a correction.

In my previous H4 BTC idea I was looking for the correction up to complete wave X as a simple ABC correction. Yes we are in a correction, price action in internal B wave convinced me of that (see previous idea and all the update's) but now as of this point internal wave C never broke above wave A. Is internal wave C over or not that is the question. If wave C broke above wave A we would have a much better idea what the go is so that's why I mentioned were in a tricky spot.

We can never be sure internal wave C up is over with the current structure until the low is broken, if we sell the break of the low for Z down that gives us very poor RR so that's clearly not an option. H4 TL still hold's so this market is very much still bearish .

H1 we have bearish divergence with 5 up and an impulse down, TL still hold's but it's looking like price is building a bearish flag . The flag is incomplete at this stage so there is no hurry to jump into to the sell. If your looking for the H4 Z down sell be patient and wait for the H1 bear flag to form before jumping into the sell on the break. 1st TP will be the break of wave Y low, 2nd TP we will have to play it by ear but if we get a similar size wave as wave W we could be looking at the $1600 area.
H1 Chart.


For the longer term investors if we get the H4 Z down that will give you a nice opportunity to buy for the longer term, at this stage there is no buy setup's that I can see so you need patience before you start loading up! ( I will put out a new D1 longer term idea once I have more data that a low is in place)

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Thank's to all the traders in advance that hit the thumbs for your support!

Previous H4 idea, Checkout the detail's and all the update's if you want to get up to speed on my point of view.


D1 idea. Checkout the idea and all the update's for the complete picture thank's.
Comment: We are getting a nice bear flag on H1 at this stage but patience is needed, We need a solid candle close breaking flag before selling or you could put sell stop at low of impulse to stop you from getting false break. This flag could keep on building for some time to come and could even turn into a smaller bearish structure so be patient. If we only get a bear flag this will be a good sign were at the start of the H4 Z down, if we get a smaller structure things could become much more complex that's why I emphasize on the importance of patience.

For the bull's there is no buy setup's that I can see, price is very much bearish on H1, keep all your ammo for the right time.
Comment: H1 we got a lower low then price pushed straight back up again. It's looking like we will get a bearish structure instead of a flag as mentioned in the last update, expanding flat most likely so if you got triggered into the trade short you will need to place your SL just above the impulse down as we don't know where the internal C wave will end (invalidation point).
Comment: Just a quick update. As I mentioned in my last update we got a structure on H1 and not a bear flag like I would have preferred so I could have been more certain of the H4 Z down. Because we got a H1 structure It make's thing's much more complex and this consolidation could go on for some time yet on the H4 like we had in the past.
H4 chart, take not of the blue boxes.
Comment: H1 I'm still bearish, this is how I'm currently looking at it. The H1 C can easily turn into a Y and the H4 Z plays out or it could become much more complex on the H1.
Comment: BTCUSD H1 Update. Checkout the idea detail's for the complete picture thank's.
Comment: BTCUSD Y Wave Down. Checkout the idea detail's for the complete picture thank's.
Comment: BTCUSD Y Wave Down. Checkout the idea detail's for the complete picture thank's.
Comment: New D1 idea out, Check it out thank's.
BTC D1 Wave C up, Running or Expanding flat.
Comment: BTCUSD W1 Basic EW ABC Correction. Checkout the idea detail's for the full run down thank's.

Related Ideas

@Boon2 First of all I've limited experience (< 1 year) and I am certainly not always right, but I wanted to share my opinion as well. Based on my price action/momentum knowledge I too see only weakness. A friend told me there's currently bullish hype due to the monthly bullish close. But all I see is a weak bullish move, far weaker than the bearish moves on all the timeframes I look at. On the monthly I see one single candle closing as "green", but within the range of the previous candles and showing a wick on the upside. On the weekly the bullish candles look weaker and smaller than the ones from the bearish swings. Same goes for the daily, 4H and 1H charts which are currently showing bearish pressure actually. So based on my price action knowledge I have to agree with you. I would be short right now too (except I can't since bitstamp doesn't allow margin trading and all the others require me to hold bitcoin, which I don't want). ;) Just my 2 cents for what it's worth. Cheers boon.
+2 Reply
Dojari Dojari
@Boon2 My charts:
+1 Reply
Dojari Dojari
@Dojari, Looks like it's going to break to the downside soon.
Reply
Boon2 Dojari
@Dojari, Thanks for your comment, Yes I think your right and I have the same view of more downside to come at this stage. Thing's are getting tricky on the H1 chart we should get a lower low but when we got a structures instead of just a flag that usually means thing's are becoming complex, I really would have liked to see the H1 flag then I could have been more sure of the H4 Z down.

Over all BTC I'v learnt since doing analysis on it, it likes to give long drawn out corrections so I could see it playing out like up the top there where my first X is on the H4 chart. After that internal C up completing the X you will see how long it stayed in consolidation before dropping so on this current consolidation after the C completing X we could see this consolidation playing out for a while yet.
Reply
Boon2 Dojari
@Dojari, Here's a pic. of what I'm talking about. (see blue boxes)
+1 Reply
Hi, Love your work and your understanding of EW theory. I'm just wondering why you expect such a large ABC correction for BTC? Should we not be nearing the end of a corrective wave 4 for BTC overall? Thanks
+1 Reply
cheretic cheretic
Also on your long term chart you have the major A in February although the price is moving lower. How can that be? Should that A not be at wherever we find bottom and then we go on to make the B and C. That would mean we are waiting for wave 5 of A currently, in a massive 535 That would make sense.
+1 Reply
Boon2 cheretic
@cheretic, On my D1 idea at that time I was looking for either a running or expanding flat, more than likely a running but either way in a expanding flat pattern wave B break's below wave A which is a 335. A 535 is a simple ABC also known as a zigzag.

In due course I will put out a new D1 idea one I have more data.
Reply
Boon2 Boon2
@Boon2, typo. once not one
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