It is possible that BTC is showing the 50% retracement of what could be the 1st wave of a macro bull pattern. This would also mean that we have closed wave 2 and are at the start of wave 3.
We are still very capable of breaking down, and if it breaks down below $8,100 it would negate the 50% retracement option. Wave 2 is often a 50% retracement of wave 1, but can also be a 61.8% retracement of wave 1. This would allow a drop down to $7,800 and the count would still hold validity. Either way, my original thought that we could have already moved into a bullish impulse wave is still a viable option.
For a lot of reasons, this should be considered a no-trade zone until we have confirmation of a bullish break of the larger channel resistance coming off of $9,970. That being said, I know some people that are long-term holders of BTC started stacking portfolio buys already at this point (15% at 8200, 20% at 8000, etc.) Look at all the ideas that are out there, look at your own TA, manage your own risk/reward and do well. We could very well be close to entering an exciting time for BTC and crypto as a whole.
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BTC broke the 50% retracement and is now setting up for our 61.8% retracement line. Given the amount of negativity and news today regarding crypto, this is to be expected. Statistically, 73% of all impulse wave 2's retrace between the 50% and 61.8%. So this surge down doesn't change anything for me.
We can keep a close eye on our RSI levels as we approach the $7,800 mark. Given how incredibly over-sold we currently are on multiple time-frames, I am guessing BTC needs to breath for a bit. I also want to note it would be a clever zone for peeps with a lot of money to acquire a lot of BTC as people off-load like crazy. I will also post one more bearish option shortly with its rationale.
Are you stacking buys at this point? Also, I know this is an amature question, but I have cashed out a couple times when it breaks resistance in a big way only to have it come back into the wedge. Any advice there?
MDuth
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@WP13Trader, whether or not you are stacking buys or waiting for confirmation is very dependent on your own personal risk/reward (where is your target, where is your stop loss, do you sit on trades for 6 minutes vs 6 months...the list goes on). That's just a way to say I can't make that call for you. In regards to the pre-mature stop-loss being exercised, it can come down to a couple things. If you are having to set up a stop-loss tight enough to not allow some play for a candle to temporarily dip below support you are most likely in a no-trade zone. Your target is low enough that in order to maintain a desired risk/reward ratio you are tightening up your stop-loss to the point it that doesn't allow for the movement that can occur prior to a candle close. Candle closes are a big deal. That is how we end up with wicks that drops below and above resistance/support. I could go on, but if you want further assistance with understanding some of these principles feel free to PM me.