Welcome friends, foes, animals, aliens, my family of crypto lovers, to this update analysis on BITCOIN! Before we jump into the chart, I have to address the elephant in the room — the top trendline of the downtrend channel. There were a lot of people who were questioning that level, and many people were posting their own charts, showing that they had different trajectories for that trendline. It was pretty clear that many of you had log charts, and I do not. I have always relied on the linear scale, and it has never failed me. If you use the log scale, obviously your lines are going to be different than mine. The other discrepancy was that some of you appeared to be trying to catch the wrong highs. If you'll notice, from the left side of the chart, you can see that the all time high, and the second peak, are the primary tops that generate the top trendline of the channel. The test on 2/20, was a failed breakout, and it is not a primary peak in the channel. Therefore, you should not use it to draw the top trendline of your channel. I have connected the highs of 2/20 and 2/28, to show you the extension of support and resistance, in both directions. You can see that the extension to the left, does not come in contact with any prior peaks, so the notion that these two peaks are a reactionary part of the top of the channel, in terms of the linear scale, is incorrect. From my perspective, I'm in awe of how many ungrateful people there are, who so valiantly chastised my trendline, but were practically silent about the incredible call that I gave on the green trendline support. I gave you the EXACT low for the right shoulder. Where was all the buzz about that? Anyway, let's get to the chart.
Looking at the four hour BTC chart, you can see that the current price action is back-testing the top of the downtrend channel (in pink.) This is actually extremely bullish price action, should BTC hold support here and rally higher. As traders who are looking for a technical buy signal, we want to see BTC hold the support here, and continue to rally higher. That's called "confirmation." BTC has rallied above the top of the downtrend channel, and now it's trying to confirm that level as support. You can see that the 200 EMA (in purple) and the 50 EMA (in orange) are moving into the picture as well. They should add support to the top of the channel, as they converge with the pink trendline, thus increasing the likelihood of support being found.
Looking at the broad picture, you can see that the inverse head and shoulders pattern is still moving a long as planned, as BTC continues to construct the right shoulder PERFECTLY, inside of the boundaries that I have specified. If you'll notice, we could be building a small inverse head and shoulders pattern inside of the right shoulder here, with the potential right shoulder being formed into the top of the channel. This small formation is in line with the assumed continuation higher that would complete the right shoulder. For now, we need to watch to see if BTC can hold here, and continue to complete the pattern. On the MACD, you can see that it is rolling over, like it wants to form a bearish crossover. However, that hasn't happened yet. A break back into the channel would be a negative sign, but BTC continues to violate the top trendline with increasing frequency, thus reducing it as a level of resistance. Currently, we need to see if BTC defines it as support. From there, we will continue to assess the primary focus of my analyses, which is the inverse head and shoulders pattern, in anticipation of a break to the upside. A confirmed break above the neckline would be a very bullish signal for BTC, and a confirmed break above the heavy resistance level (at about 12,7500 would be enormously bullish. I'm the master of the charts, the professor, the legend, the king, and I go by the name of Magic. Au revoir.
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This has been your not-so-humble market wizard, droppin' knowledge like bombs in this place! Please follow, comment, like, and share on social media. Good luck trading everyone!
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***
-Magic loves you-
-JD-
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Here is the chart where I gave you the inverse head and shoulders pattern. I showed you with flawless accuracy, unlike anyone else. It has consistently been the primary focus of my recent BTC analyses.
Not wanting to take anything away from Mr. PoopCan's excellent TA and "free" guidance. The time and effort put into your posts are very much appreciated by the majority, ... except by the "ones" who think they know everything (..and all I can say is good luck to them in life, lol).
My intention is not to prove anyone right or wrong. Nor to criticize.
Investing is all about math, trend lines and time frames, pure and simple. Time frames include 2 variables. Candle frequency and time devoted to trading.
You can use all the fancy software, indicators, EW theory, fib levels, wishful thinking, stress, dice, etc, etc, ... but it does not have to be complicated. Hand a 6 yr old a blank piece of paper with a line that represents a calculated average and tell the kid to draw some lines. When the straight line is broken by the curved line, ...you change direction and get candy. When the next line is broken by the curved line, you reverse direction and get candy again.
If you follow the simple instructions, ...you get used to getting candy. And at 6 years old, I think most would continue to do the same thing over and over again. I know my dogs sure does.
What happens as we grow up, ...is we think we can outsmart other people and get more and more candy, ... so we develop fancy tools, indicators, techniques, pump and dump schemes, etc.. to prove we are smarter than anyone else. In the end, all we've done is add to stresses in life and are no farther ahead than we were at 6 years old, doing sweet FA and getting candy anyway.
So my advice is to eliminate the noise (price fluctuations, advice, criticism, trolls, egomaniacs, ...etc), and decide what time frame you want to sync your life with trading. Average the price noise, get a ruler and enjoy life. Trade the time frame that suits your lifestyle.
Eliminate the stresses that trading creates by eliminating the "noise". And, that mostly includes people that criticize and think they know everything about trading and life in general.
If you're not a Buffet type personality then increase your time frame
1 hour - EMA = 21
! [ ] (tradingview.com/x/VD1Gfr3l/)
Of course you can adjust to fit to whatever lifestyle or goals.
Remember one thing, ... we only get one chance.
Life's not about counting up (years, money, partners, ..etc...)
It's all about counting your time down, until you reach zero.
Like options, ---> they expire.
Think about that, .. then plan your "frames" accordingly so you can enjoy the rest of the time you have on the rotating rock, ...stress free.
it is, @rev214us ...the issues are more so the discipline involved, not the basic method itself. If you simply programmed a computer to reverse positions on an alarm line preset, ...it would make money in the long run.
The whole market preys on human psychology, ...from market makers, to the trading systems, the commissions, the "expert" advice, the "fake" news, ...blah, blah, blah. If the market was a complete simulation where computers were programmed using the same algo's to trade back and forth, in the end they would each have the same slice of the pie. If the computers were programmed by different people, then their slice of the pie would reflect the original input/skill of the human.
Of course this is not the reality. The reality is that the game is manipulated by market movers and we follow crumbs left behind. A 1-minute chart cannot hide pricing action. The market makers goal is to prey on people trading on emotion, greed, ignorance, get rich quick, ..etc, etc. They take money from weak hands. And they have a planned disciplined approach. Sometimes/many times in collusion.
Therefore all us "peons" can do is develop the same discipline that it takes to be successful with the process. And that involves a method of trading that doesn't cloud judgement. Like a "computah" would think
@rev214us, ...I'm for anything that helps you visualize a trend and change in direction. I don't personally use Renko charts, ..but it's whatever works for you. I may give it a go one day. I prefer basics and the zooming in and out of time frames for long/short term perspectives and trends. TV has by far the best implementation of javascript to allow for this to be done very very quickly. And a great facility to roll some of your own.
kardia
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@zr0s, As I am certain you are aware, the volatility is strong in this highly manipulated market. I am very interested in seeing how you trade BTC.
zr0s
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@rev214us, Support, resistance, trend lines, trend lines on averages, trend lines on indicators, trend lines on averages on indicators, EW, fibs. Time frames at every level. Simple stuff and just the basics.
kardia
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@zr0s, That's very different from the simple 21 EMA method you shared earlier.
zr0s
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@rev214us, ...it was just an example that it doesn't have to be complicated. A newb using the simple trend line 21 EMA would likely have as much success vs a "pro" using a shite load of lines and indicators, ... without the loss of sleep and anxiety issues that come with over-trading. Starting with simple tools and concepts, and working within limits and timeframes I believe works best. Especially for the majority of traders. Again, ...it is all about what works for you
vfenyves
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@zr0s, very interesting, if you post your chart when you draw your lines, I’m sure a lot of people would appreciate, especially those of us who tend to rely on emotion. Followed.
My intention is not to prove anyone right or wrong. Nor to criticize.
Investing is all about math, trend lines and time frames, pure and simple. Time frames include 2 variables. Candle frequency and time devoted to trading.
You can use all the fancy software, indicators, EW theory, fib levels, wishful thinking, stress, dice, etc, etc, ... but it does not have to be complicated. Hand a 6 yr old a blank piece of paper with a line that represents a calculated average and tell the kid to draw some lines. When the straight line is broken by the curved line, ...you change direction and get candy. When the next line is broken by the curved line, you reverse direction and get candy again.
If you follow the simple instructions, ...you get used to getting candy. And at 6 years old, I think most would continue to do the same thing over and over again. I know my dogs sure does.
What happens as we grow up, ...is we think we can outsmart other people and get more and more candy, ... so we develop fancy tools, indicators, techniques, pump and dump schemes, etc.. to prove we are smarter than anyone else. In the end, all we've done is add to stresses in life and are no farther ahead than we were at 6 years old, doing sweet FA and getting candy anyway.
So my advice is to eliminate the noise (price fluctuations, advice, criticism, trolls, egomaniacs, ...etc), and decide what time frame you want to sync your life with trading. Average the price noise, get a ruler and enjoy life. Trade the time frame that suits your lifestyle.
Eliminate the stresses that trading creates by eliminating the "noise". And, that mostly includes people that criticize and think they know everything about trading and life in general.
If you're a Buffet type personality then trade on this:
1 day - EMA = 21
! [ ] (tradingview.com/x/21Z2QKyy/)
If you're not a Buffet type personality then increase your time frame
1 hour - EMA = 21
! [ ] (tradingview.com/x/VD1Gfr3l/)
Of course you can adjust to fit to whatever lifestyle or goals.
Remember one thing, ... we only get one chance.
Life's not about counting up (years, money, partners, ..etc...)
It's all about counting your time down, until you reach zero.
Like options, ---> they expire.
Think about that, .. then plan your "frames" accordingly so you can enjoy the rest of the time you have on the rotating rock, ...stress free.