We observed Bitcoin over the winter and followed it closely, as it was indicating deeper bottom, however it turned around and went up in few, lets say, manipulation-like movements (that 30 minute candle going up 1000$ without any follow up or logic, as it was possible to buy that much coins at 7000 level without hassle).
Dusting off my bitcoin chart I noticed we may still be in the corrective wave 5, that has ABC structure, and that it's A = 5000$, so if C = A we may see another 5000$ drop from recent highs, pointing towards 4500$ level which was marked in my last BTC analysis.
This is just my observation, I have not decided to get back in this yet, some shorts I had were closed due to very tight stops, so I'm on the sidelines now and would stack up massively if this dip occurs as it should indicate that this thing still follows EW theory meaning it's upcoming jump will take us much higher than the last one in December '17.
Remember: when mainstream altcoins follow BTC in real time, i.e they don't rally massively or drop on their own but instead only react to what BTC does - we are still in the bear market.
You were always spot on with your analyses. You predicted this on May 1st and we are almost there now! Would love to hear what your observations are :)
Repuzel
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@Mielie, Thanks for your comment. Thoughts about crypto market at the moment: we should see a small bull run once we hit ~4500$ level. This bull run could most likely take us back to 6400-7400$ range, but most importantly it will bring even higher returns (percentage-wise) in altcoins. I would also ignore most altcoins which aren't in top 20 on coinmarketcap because the volume dried up massively and a lot of recent ICO's and alts will completely collapse as this bearish market continues. Chances that we are going to see $20.000 before winter of 2019 are very slim, we need to trade sideways for quite some time first and go under the radar as the markets sets up for new major bull run that could see returns similar to the 2017 pump.
And many ask Why should there be a major pump ever again? - well, if we take a look at top 100 wallets in BTC and other major alts, you will notice 99,5% haven't sold any coins at all since inception and that is a useful indicator when deciding which alts to trade as the XRP, TRX and EOS developers are holding massive amounts of coins they will dump once the price goes much higher - and they will do their best to make sure this price is as high as possible (e.g. what Charlie Lee of LTC did).
Mielie
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@Repuzel, thank you so much for your reply! I am a super noob at this. Have read a few books, but have realized that there is so much more to it. Hence my following you and other traders on different sites. I only picked up on you since other seasoned traders mentioned your analyses at times. I thought I'd mention that to you :) The knowledge you always part with is super helpful and I want to thank you for it. Case in point: I would never have thought about considering looking at the major wallets in BTC and major alts!! :) I am now going to do so going forward :) Your views about macro economic trends of the crypto space/markets is also very helpful. Thanks again. Hope you have a nice day!