This is a Bitcoin (BTCUSD) analysis on the 1W time-frame using the Chaikin Oscillator and the Stochastic. It is not common to see those two indicators, especially on such an asset, but despite being overlooked, they offer an excellent explanation of where the price is trading relative to its previous Cycles.
** The Chaikin Oscillator ** The Chaikin Osc, which is displayed by the red histogram has been mostly trading below the 100.00 level since the start of the year (Jan 2022). We saw the same trading pattern during the late 2014/ early 2015 Cycle bottom formation and to a shorter extent during the November 2018 - March 2019 Cycle bottom formation. Observe how symmetrical the peaks (which made Lower Highs during the Bear Cycle) of the Chaikin are.
** The Stochastic ** Now take a look at the Stoch, which also forms Lower Highs during Bitcoin's Bear Cycles, a pattern that is again consistent throughout the current Cycle. At the same time, there is a noticeable Support Zone. At the end of that zone, after the last Lower Highs, the Stoch prints a Higher Lows formation, quite volatile, which then aggressively breaks to the upside the breaks the 80.00 level. It appears that BTC is currently at this exact stage.
Every such Chaikin - Stoch combo in the past Cycles has always come after the Bottom and indicated that BTC was at the start of the recovery Channel (green), which slowly but methodically led the price to the previous All Time High that gave way to the Parabolic Rally that eventually ended the Cycle with the new High.
Do you agree with the above evidence. Has BTC entered the Bull Channel or we haven't seen the Bottom yet? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below!
P.S. Because the chart having the Chaikin Osc plotted together with the BTC candles, it is not constant and may appear distorted based on your screen's/ browser dimensions. The original looks like this below, so if yours doesn't, adjust the vertical/ horizontal axis in order to make it look like this and better understand what is illustrated:
You have forecasted the bottom for Bitcoin several times this year. How reliable is this prediction supposed to be? Additionally, I would argue it is absolutely ridiculous to suggest the start of the bull market in the face of global recession and risk aversion. It feels like the more followers you other guys have, the less accurate you are and the less you know about economics.
kamil92
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@Tradersweekly, they are only posting bullish views as long as I remember. They are not analyzing the market, but rather looking for confirmation of their bullish bias.
Tradersweekly
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@kamil92, I wonder how many times was this bullish bias confirmed in the past year? But it seems - many times.
DrStein
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@Tradersweekly, this account's only purpose is to post stupid, insane, ridiculous perma bullish charts in order to trap more and more fools in buying. His prediction about BTC are wrong wince the last ATH!
BDG
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In the past the bull run did not start until after the 1W Chaiken turned positive and the Stoch went above 50. It looks to me like we are either still accumulating or still going down. What is your exit strategy? Is it when weekly price closes below the recent low of 17,585 that will disqualify the channel recovery?
Amjadsid
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@BDG, can u plz share picture: regarding bottom clue :
BDG
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@Amjadsid, sure. As long as you don't tell anyone else.
An old stock trader told me 20 years ago he never buys any stock that is below its 200 day MA. That is the 'dead zone'. Anything below that has a chance of falling further or moving sideways. It has saved him a great deal of headaches and money by NOT trying to catch a falling knife or trying to pick the bottom. Now if you apply this to Bitcoin (are you sure there is no one else listening?), you can throw on a 200 MA on a daily chart (or use 200 EMA if you like) and look at what happens when BTC is below the 200 MA. (Turn on Auto and use Ctrl+LeftArrow to scroll back). You will see nothing much happens below the daily 200 MA. But as soon as BTC (or most other cryptos) close above the 200 MA, it is like a plane taking off. It accelerates higher at a much faster rate than when it is below the 200 MA. This is especially true of stocks or cryptos that have been months or years below its 200 MA. For me, the 200 MA marks a breakout move. It is not "the" bottom but it marks the transition of coming from the bottom into a possible bull rally.
Remember when trading or investing, buying anything below its daily 200 MA is going into shark infested waters. Capital preservation is a must and is much safer when price moves above the 200 MA than below it.
I hope this helps.
Amjadsid
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@BDG, THANKS A lot for the Explanation sir : SO nice of You :Just applied on daily chart: Now I realize the importance of 200MA: it will save many $$$ and time: Thanks again for the help God bless u