This is Bitcoin (BTCUSD) on the 1W time-frame and displays a projection both in terms of pricing and timing of its next Cycle modelled out of the previous three using the following attributes:
* The Halvings. * Fibonacci extensions from Cycle Top to Bottom to calculate the next Top. * Top-to-Top-to-Bottom-Bottom-to-Halving stats and vice versa.
Basically this is an extension and combination of previous studies that we've published here on TradingView.
The features of the New Cycle based on the previous ones:
- There is a potential Bottom for the current Cycle around $11500 and this is based on a -83% decrease from the $69000 Top. The previous two Cycles made a Bottom at -83% and -86% from their respective Tops.
- This Bottom is expected to be on the week of November 07 2022 based on the Top-to-Bottom stat, calculated at 52 weeks (364 days). This is consistent with the previous two Cycles Top-to-Bottom stats at 52 weeks (364 days) and 59 weeks (413 days) respectively.
- The Bottom-to-Top range for the next Cycle is calculated at 152 bars/ weeks (1064 days), giving a potential Top on the week of October 06 2025. The previous two Cycles Bottom-to-Top stats have also been 152 weeks (1064 days), while the earlier one 110 weeks (770 days).
- That Top of the new Cycle, can potentially be around $200000, calculated on the 1.618 Fibonacci extension level of the previous Top and the next potential Bottom. The Top of the previous Cycle was a little over 1.618, while the Tops of the previous two Cycles were around the 2.383 Fib. Having lower tops, i.e. lower returns is consistent with the Theory of Diminishing Returns in time.
- The Halving-to-Top ranges at 83 weeks (581 days), while the Top-to-Top at 204 weeks (1428 days) projected after the previous two Cycles.
- The price on the date of the Halving can potentially be around $34500. That is calculate at -50% from the top, consistent with the previous three Cycles (-50%, -46% and -60% respectively).
- Also the Bottom-to-Bottom stat (calculated at 204 weeks/ 1428 days) gives an estimated Bottom to the next Cycle around the week of October 05 2026.
If I forget something, it is all on the chart for you to see and draw your own conclusions. As the title says this is a Blueprint of the next Cycle, a roadmap purely drawn on Bitcoin's historical data at hand. The reality can turn out to be quite different if the fundamentals weigh differently this time but in a market of constantly moving variables, this 'Blueprint' may be a good way to start and do your own research.
So how useful do you think this model is? Do you agree with the potential Bottom and Top levels? Feel free to let me know in the comments section below!
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You may also TELL ME 🙋♀️🙋♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁
@TradingView, a very good piece of info. I'm looking for shorts on BTC and ETH based on structure
YertuntsTrader
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So interesting idea, goodluck my friend
louistran_016
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question, the law of diminishing return predicts as a asset / technology becomes more mature, the range of expected return and volatility becomes smaller and smaller if lower return is to be expected from BTC top this cycle, should the bottom also becomes shallower? If not this law is severly bias on 1 direction
ToonaFish
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@louistran_016 this is a good point that not too many people mention or are aware of. If cycle peaks don't yield as much returns, cycle bottoms should not crash by as much as before.
louistran_016
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@ToonaFish, if not we will get some sicked version of the law of NVIDA, when chip performance growth is smaller and smaller but price increase is larger and larger...
reggertjr
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@louistran_016, But with a limited supply, is bitcoin exempt from the law of diminishing return?
@reggertjr, You also need demand otherwise supply doesn't mean anything. Look at bitcoin cash same supply as btc, but now trading even below covid crash price and did not even make new ath this bull run. Not just diminishing returns but accelerating losses. Everybody so confident and have a bullish bias that there will be a bull run in 2025, it might just not happen and it can crash back to 3k and stay there for years.