@TRADESBYZION, no im never sure, this is a game of probability not certainty, this is why prudent risk management is essential
innocentAccoun35113
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Did your risk management include the probability of what happens when you try to fade an existing trend?
LH65
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@innocentAccoun35113, yes, i have found in my own trading that the existing htf trend has little impact on my probability of success.
innocentAccoun35113
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@LH65, so you haven't been very successful then. Well it's refreshing you are honest about that. Although you did fudge the result about the short trade you took from under 29k. You reported closing when prices hit 31550. That's a difference/loss of 2.5k.
Anyways I guess the lesson learnt here will probably make your future predictions better. Good luck
LH65
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@innocentAccoun35113, i closed the position in small profit and i can link you time and entry screenshots if you like, if you read in the comments above (yes i know that might be hard for you) you will see my management notes, unfortunately TV doesn't have timestamps on comments. The comment i added this morning was simply me rounding up my thoughts on the trade, not my final exit price.
StewySongs
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It's none to wise to trade on the 15 minute chart either given that the big institutions are trading on the 1 hour chart.
@LH65, Yes, I was trading on 15 mins/1 hour before, but have now moved to 1hr/4hr. It hasn't really changed my strategies, but my SL's are not so tight now, so I've noticed I am getting stopped out less.
LH65
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@GeekMama, if it works for you then fantastic keep doing it