I'll be straight forward here: BUY THE DIP!
Let me make a prelude. This article is for investors and position traders, not swing or daytrading. Different strategies with different intents.
Bitcoin continues to simply grind higher and quite frankly the run is likely not over yet. The current pullback or wave (4) of the swing, is proportional to wave (2). In my opinion this is likely the lower end of the consolidation we are seeing currently. Can we go lower? Sure, but broader momentum is picking up, not slowing down. In addition the selloff Thursday night, or Friday morning, depending on where you are, was absorbed quickly. Across social media, complaints about not being able to sign in and buy the dip.
There are also way to many pessimists and bears around still calling for lower levels or capitulation to new lows. Don't kid yourself, few if any of these guys have bought during the low, or already sold their load of coins. Remember the calls for "LOCK IN PROFITS" at 4000-4500 and 5k? Way to early, and we actually added at 5150, though we trimmed half of that position off at 6300. We figured it was an area that we could at least buy back if it did move higher. Well maybe I was wrong, but we are still holding a position from 3550 and half of one from 5150 and freed up some capital on Thursday to buy the dip. Regardless we got the bulk of this move, and are ready to add.
In my opinion anything under 7k is a buying area now. Just looking at the structure of the chart, momentum is picking up not slowing down. We also have a three wave cycle that appears to be structurally and proportionally correct forming a mid term wave (3). With wave (4) proportional to wave (2) we can look at wave (5) being proportional to wave (1) and this puts us at around 9k. Now this is just a preliminary target and more of a guide of where we want to look for a top. This would complete wave "1" in the broader cycle, on our path to 24k.
One thing I can tell you is that attempting to short a market where buying momentum is picking up, in the face of pessimists is a risky endeavor. In addition shorting here is extremely dangerous as wave (2) was drawn out, and wave (4)'s are generally the opposite of wave 2's so this could be quick and simple. A drop and pop, sucking in shorts, and stopping them out.
Ignoring a Fundamental Change:
Many are so stuck in their own bias they are ignoring the fundamental change to this market and are actually part of the sentiment driving the market. Just look at the top articles on TV and on social outlets. Calls for 4500 have turned to 5500 which implies even the most of the bears are raising their targets. Sure there is still that guy clinging onto a capitulation into the abyss, but overall bears are raising support levels. Something to consider as it pertains to market sentiment.
I still can't believe many are ignoring the liquidity and access trading platforms like TD Ameritrade, E-Trade, Motif Investing and Fidelity will bring to the market. You think Coinbase is adding crap coins at a record pace after years of only wanting the premium coins? It is because the fundamentals of the market are about to change and most of these exchanges are going to go belly up. Coinbase is attempting to position ahead of the change.
This is simple fruition and the only thing many of these crappy exchanges can cling to is crap coins. No moving average, oscillator or other indicator is going to give you a heads up on this fundamental change. These markets provide access to 10's of millions of traders with Trillions of dollars in assets.
However price action is clearly showing us this is happening. All these market gurus are selling their inventory to someone, and do you think that someone is the retail investor? You know the guy yelling SELL at every technical level only to see the market get away? Or those calling for patterns, diverging bats and dreams, that are meaningless in these market conditions? Or those that just forecast the weather and never have the gonads to make an actual call.
Here is a call:
Buy the dip and put it away, the path is clear for 24k. Ok I have been watching Gotham episodes on Netflix . Favorite character so far, the penguin! I digress.
Can 4500 happen:
Sure it can, we are not naive to make a statement that it is impossible. We never thought we would see 3200. We did, but we had a plan and 5 months later we are back to and above where we were and profited from this. The difference is we can hold and add into an improbable move when we are wrong. We took advantage of the improbable, and now are sitting in a descent position. Of course we always think, boy I wish I would have added more, but hey I wish I bought Amazon at $5 in 2002 too and played 6-2 off-suit with 3 all ins the other night in the tournament only to see 662 hit the board.
Those levels are likely gone, so we look at moving forward.
Do you want to continue to watch Bitcoin move higher, and miss every opportunity to add? Hey pulls back to 4500, I am a buyer, it is all about position size. I said that at 3550 when the trolls gave me crap, calling for 2k. I said if it gets there I am a buyer too, by the way where are all those guys lately? Regardless I would have kept adding into the dip as my time frame is long term. If it pushes back to 4500 I will be adding more.
As I have written about here and on our site for weeks. 3500 & 4500 are likely gone and hoping it gets back there before you add might have you missing out on the broader move. Also if you didn't have the balls to buy the pullback to 3500, you will likely get cold feet if we get to 4500. Remember all those at 6k last year waiting to buy 4500 or 3500 yet got scared when it got there? There are scared investors and there are bold investors, you have to determine which one you are. I never seen a scared investor make any money.
We are looking to buy this dip! THIS IS JUST THE BEGINNING!
Pretty official, and also Motif investing has a similar announcement on their front page. "Diversified crypto investing coming soon" https://www.motif.com/
You think E-Trade and others are not going to follow? LMAO ok
Before trying to discredit someone or accuse them of spreading fake news, you may want to do a little research. Otherwise you look like CNN analyst @dalamazio
Couln't agree more, but first i have my sights on 10k - should be a easy and fast ride.
I like your post man...you way of thinking is constructive for the community !!!