So in this you will see 3-3-5 wave from current congestion which may have been calling it , perhaps incorrectly. If this unfolds as flat, then you will have the opportunity to see live how the price forms such 3-3-5 correction with high being formed around 1100-1150 zone. Don't be too rigid about the actual price zone noted, except by that time you need to be able to see clear 5 waves to the upside completing around there or on either side.
The it will give you confidence of the larger "Flat Wave" described in my previous 2 charts also could unfold similarly.
For greater explanation and understanding of this type of patter and EW analysis you can view 2 recordings on Youtube which you can find at the following links:
Hope you enjoy this and help you plan your trades ahead of time with specific observation to look out for final entry and exits.
As always, please don't follow blindly and use good money management to ensure that should we be wrong the loss could be well defined before entry.
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The charts on http://www.bitcoinwisdom.com for the different exchanges (MtGox, Bitstamp, BTC-E and Huobi) show a different perspective as to the breakout this afternoon, and to your analysis based on the chart of MtGox.
You signaled the difference yourself above, when you gave us the chart based on BTC-E. Now there is a 200 dollar difference between Mt Gox and the other exchanges for BTC/USD. From you last chart I understand that you see the breakout this afternoon as wave 3, whereas from the charts of Bitstamp and BTC-E this breakout could be understand as wave 1 for the move up to 1100-1150. So the breakout this afternoon is the start of the new uptrend, and we breakout of the congestion, finally.
What do you think?
Thanks for your time and excellent work and analysis. I appreciate it!
Earlier today, I posted a question as to your charts (see thread above on this webpage). As a follow-up, I did some research as to the liquidity of Mt Gox versus the other exchanges.
Your analysis is bound to MtGox, which hasn't shown the same level of deep retracement as the other exchanges which are yet to fully crack the consolidation resistance we've seen over the past few days/weeks. The spread between MtGox and other exchanges has grown by a lot.
I learned from you and other charts I studied here on Tradingview that the less liquid the exchange, the wider and deeper the swings for that illiquid exchange.
So I searched for data that explicitly demonstrates that MtGox has been outperformed in terms of liquidity by another exchange,
so then you can also seriously consider shifting to that exchange to support your analyses.
Maybe here is some information as to the liquidity on MtGox versus the other exchanges:
Huobi (China) is leading as to volume: 60% in last 30 days. Mt Gox has only 9% marketshare. See: http://www.bitcoinity.org/markets/list?currency=ALL&span=24h (choose timespan)
As to Mt Gox I learned from http://bitcoin.clarkmoody.com/ that there are currently only 15.000 Bitcoins on the exchange for selling (ask).
At http://bitcoinwisdom.com/ you can see the exchanges Bitstamp, MtGox, BTC-E and Huobi and also their trading volumes. Huobi (China) is leading here as well. So what happens on MtGox may be not representative for the other exchanges.
What do you think? Is this analysis relevant for reading your charts, or not?
Thanks for reading my post!
Not sure if that answers your question but hope it helps.
Thanks for your answer. I understand your reasoning and agree. But people also need to keep in mind that a dollar on Gox is worth only .85c.
MtGox price continues to rise regardless of other market movement, as explained in this blogpost http://theblogchain.com/2014/01/24/mtgox-is-mtvesuvius-the-full-story/
MtGox volume is clearly decreasing. The gap with the other exchanges is increasing and that is a problem. Conclusions based on MtGox alone might not give the whole story and picture.
Today's retracement is interesting.
How do you interpret today's retracement after yesterday's move up? Do you see it as part of your wave 3 from your last chart of 2 days ago, or could it be that yesterday's breakout was the beginning of wave 1 of your 5 wave up to 1100-1200 zone, and today's retracement is wave 2?
When I look at the charts of Bitstamp, BTC-E and Huobi, yesterday we possibly break out of a sideways combination of two corrective patterns a "double three". So we may be not in wave 3 of the 5 wave leg up, as you suggested in your chart from 2 days ago.
Is that correct or am I missing your point?
I'm very interested in an update of your chart after yesterday's breakout, also taken into account the differences between MtGox and the other exchanges as discussed above. It's important to know where we are positioned in the 5 wave leg up at the moment IMHO. What do you think?
Thank you very much for your time and analysis.