DanV
Long

BTCUSD - Short term Bullish to 1100-1150 zone

MTGOX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
3946 27 11
Whilst the last 2 charts on BTCUSD             published are highlighting intermediate term bearish with potential move down to retest the low at 450 and longer term will revert to new bullish move over longer term, I am seeing small scale "Flat Wave" in the short term under progression and feel that I should publish that chart.

So in this you will see 3-3-5 wave from current congestion which may have been calling it descending triangle, perhaps incorrectly. If this unfolds as flat, then you will have the opportunity to see live how the price forms such 3-3-5 correction with high being formed around 1100-1150 zone. Don't be too rigid about the actual price zone noted, except by that time you need to be able to see clear 5 waves to the upside completing around there or on either side.

The it will give you confidence of the larger "Flat Wave" described in my previous 2 charts also could unfold similarly.

For greater explanation and understanding of this type of patter and EW analysis you can view 2 recordings on Youtube which you can find at the following links:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7XB2CDRQJxo

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Q4SZsJAWIs

Hope you enjoy this and help you plan your trades ahead of time with specific observation to look out for final entry and exits.

As always, please don't follow blindly and use good money management to ensure that should we be wrong the loss could be well defined before entry.

For those of you who have asked me for link for making donation, you can do that at the link: 1Q1jYasGiJxvvYNX2KwwmX8KGoXRMu9rAW
Corgidad
2 years ago
A-ha! A Bitcoin address! I'm glad you remembered.

If that prediction holds true and I make some money from it, you can be sure a part of that will make its way there!
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DanV MOD Corgidad
2 years ago
Thank you, I appreciate it. If it plays out then the next major leg anticipated to the downside would also be of interest.
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DanV MOD
2 years ago
It seems that Bitcoin may have a signature patter of Flats. Here is another one in minor cycle on 15 min time frame. This could give almost perfect long entry 890-880 for the move described above in the main chart towards 1100-1150
snapshot
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DanV MOD
2 years ago
The development of new wave up has been lacking momentum to the upside. So as someone suggested I checked BTCE and based on that chart, I think in the very short term the Flat might not hold but could make new low before reverting to go up in 5 wave move. So similat outcome but initially slightly different path. Here is the chart
snapshot
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donlopez
2 years ago
Amazing, we will see if it goes so high,

Thanks DanV.
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minbari PRO
2 years ago
Come on 3rd wave! Daddy needs a new pair of shoes!
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money_hof
2 years ago
any update please
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DanV MOD money_hof
2 years ago
As Long as we continue to make higher highs & higher lows for this cycle, we are on track for making a potential top around 1100 - 1150 as anticipated. Unless you are trading small time frame, overall analysis don't change that frequently. Here is an a updated chart
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DanV MOD
2 years ago
Still on course
snapshot
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money_hof
2 years ago
thanks
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sdfghjkl
2 years ago
just curious, are you still bullish on the short term?
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DanV MOD sdfghjkl
2 years ago
Hi. Yes I am still bullish in short term and the retracement has been little deeper than one would have liked but whilst the last low holds we still have nothing changed other than the move has been postponed.
snapshot
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flibbr DanV
2 years ago
What has changed; Willy was turned off.
This IMO was the num 1 reason the price got pumped... but I hope your right and it does rally up. Can't see the will or reason for it though tbh
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gaax
2 years ago
You can't use gox for your chart... the price is supported by people buying btc to get off gox before it comes out that it is insolvent
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eYou gaax
2 years ago
Hi Dan,

The charts on www.bitcoinwisdom.com for the different exchanges (MtGox, Bitstamp, BTC-E and Huobi) show a different perspective as to the breakout this afternoon, and to your analysis based on the chart of MtGox.

You signaled the difference yourself above, when you gave us the chart based on BTC-E. Now there is a 200 dollar difference between Mt Gox and the other exchanges for BTC/USD. From you last chart I understand that you see the breakout this afternoon as wave 3, whereas from the charts of Bitstamp and BTC-E this breakout could be understand as wave 1 for the move up to 1100-1150. So the breakout this afternoon is the start of the new uptrend, and we breakout of the congestion, finally.

What do you think?

Thanks for your time and excellent work and analysis. I appreciate it!

Best regards,

Herbert
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DanV MOD ChannelSurfer
2 years ago
Hey Mate. I think this is out of order and regardless of your views, I would not approve of your attitudes or sentiments. I am disappointed with this out burst and hope you will act more acceptably to earn respect as I expect of all my friends. I am hope I will not be embarrassed with this kind of nonsense again. Thank you
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DanV MOD ChannelSurfer
2 years ago
Well thanks for your effort in saving my ass as you put it. Folks will often try to ridicule EW or any other approach for that matter. I do not need anyone to protect my belief in EW. But Honestly, I don't know how all this started. And I have good interaction with you before and enjoyed it too. However, I cannot approve your outburst above. It really is not called for or be-hooves someone hoe could command respect from ones good conduct. So please just let it lie as it is and may be things will just blow over.
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DanV MOD ChannelSurfer
2 years ago
OK I hear what you say. If you feel that will satisfy you then go right ahead. But please do not continue interacting with me in this way on this chat. That is my personal request. Not fair on others who will view my analysis. If you think I can help then contact me view email to tradingcharts4wealth@gmail.com But please do not persist in this manner. There are more important things to focus on and make money, not argue endlessly on non profitable subject. Hope you understand.
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DanV MOD ChannelSurfer
2 years ago
Following your last comment, I assumed you were going to end the matter. But clearly not. I offered alternative which you declined. Not really sure what you want. I really don't think you should spend any more time on the matter, At least not having all this nonsense on my charts here.
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eYou ChannelSurfer
2 years ago
Dear Dan,

Earlier today, I posted a question as to your charts (see thread above on this webpage). As a follow-up, I did some research as to the liquidity of Mt Gox versus the other exchanges.

Your analysis is bound to MtGox, which hasn't shown the same level of deep retracement as the other exchanges which are yet to fully crack the consolidation resistance we've seen over the past few days/weeks. The spread between MtGox and other exchanges has grown by a lot.

I learned from you and other charts I studied here on Tradingview that the less liquid the exchange, the wider and deeper the swings for that illiquid exchange.

So I searched for data that explicitly demonstrates that MtGox has been outperformed in terms of liquidity by another exchange,
so then you can also seriously consider shifting to that exchange to support your analyses.

Maybe here is some information as to the liquidity on MtGox versus the other exchanges:

Huobi (China) is leading as to volume: 60% in last 30 days. Mt Gox has only 9% marketshare. See: http://www.bitcoinity.org/markets/list?currency=ALL&span=24h (choose timespan)

As to Mt Gox I learned from http://bitcoin.clarkmoody.com/ that there are currently only 15.000 Bitcoins on the exchange for selling (ask).

At http://bitcoinwisdom.com/ you can see the exchanges Bitstamp, MtGox, BTC-E and Huobi and also their trading volumes. Huobi (China) is leading here as well. So what happens on MtGox may be not representative for the other exchanges.

What do you think? Is this analysis relevant for reading your charts, or not?

Thanks for reading my post!

Best regards,

Herbert
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DanV MOD eYou
2 years ago
Thank you for your research and analysis of liquidity. I thinks it is relevant and likely might be more so going forward. However, GOX has the longest price history, and there are times when the pattern on GOX is more clear than others. Never the less, the actual up and down swings are very highly correlated. so in general there will will be relevant swings in each which in turn will be related to their respective prior swings. So rather than fret over which one has more appeal or popular, it is better to compare then against each other. So whilst both will do the similar thing,s there are time when one might give more clearer pattern and either leads the trend or swing reversal and the other follows soon after setting potential divergence and that is more powerful than to worry bout all infrastructure. I chart both but really have no working knowledge of any of these or the others in the Crypto currency community.

Not sure if that answers your question but hope it helps.
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eYou DanV
2 years ago
Dear Dan,

Thanks for your answer. I understand your reasoning and agree. But people also need to keep in mind that a dollar on Gox is worth only .85c.

MtGox price continues to rise regardless of other market movement, as explained in this blogpost http://theblogchain.com/2014/01/24/mtgox-is-mtvesuvius-the-full-story/

MtGox volume is clearly decreasing. The gap with the other exchanges is increasing and that is a problem. Conclusions based on MtGox alone might not give the whole story and picture.

Rgds,

Herbert
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eYou eYou
2 years ago
Dear Dan,

Today's retracement is interesting.

How do you interpret today's retracement after yesterday's move up? Do you see it as part of your wave 3 from your last chart of 2 days ago, or could it be that yesterday's breakout was the beginning of wave 1 of your 5 wave up to 1100-1200 zone, and today's retracement is wave 2?

When I look at the charts of Bitstamp, BTC-E and Huobi, yesterday we possibly break out of a sideways combination of two corrective patterns a "double three". So we may be not in wave 3 of the 5 wave leg up, as you suggested in your chart from 2 days ago.

Is that correct or am I missing your point?

I'm very interested in an update of your chart after yesterday's breakout, also taken into account the differences between MtGox and the other exchanges as discussed above. It's important to know where we are positioned in the 5 wave leg up at the moment IMHO. What do you think?

Thank you very much for your time and analysis.

Rgds,

Herbert
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Oldirty eYou
2 years ago
I'm with you Herbert, DanV. I love your charts, but you need to be using Bitstamp because of the liquidity problems on MtGox. Please either do public analysis of both or just use Bitstamp. Most traders are disregarding Mt. Gox right now and based on the last few charts I've seen from you which have been flat out wrong I think you should consider changing which exchange you read from.
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DanV MOD
2 years ago
This chart is being retired as the sideways congestion never broke out to the upside and lasted longer than expected. But now the downside trend has resumed and it is better described in my other charts, most recent one is
Bitcoin BearishTrend Resumes


and the 2 earlier ones are
BTCUSD - Bitcoint in Bearish Configuration
and
BTCUSD - It
Happy trading.
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daehbew
2 years ago
Yeah I'm gonna need your bitcoin addy as well Dan.. I did a binary trade for $400 bucks which will grow into $800 if everything holds true.. that was USDJPY.. followed one of your charts along with some calculations I did..
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DanV MOD daehbew
2 years ago
Hi Mate, Great. I am please it assisted you in your trade. Hope it works out for you. Here is my Bitcoin address if you need it 1Q1jYasGiJxvvYNX2KwwmX8KGoXRMu9rAW Thanks.
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