Hi friends! In an attempt to give my lovely viewers a heads up on the potential dangers of this market, I would like to share this gloomy analysis with you. Let's look at Bitcoin! Dun Dun Duuuuuuuuuun! =D
As we can see on the four hour chart, BTC has managed to rally off of Wednesday's low. However, the BTC rally appears weak, in comparison to the rest of the crypto space. As I said in my last BTC post "Possible Dead Cat Bounce in Bitcoin! (BTC) MEOOOW!" many of the other cryptos have rallied to their significant overhead resistance levels. However, Bitcoin appears to be running out of gas. It hasn't even made it up to test the "heavy resistance" level, which shouldn't be that difficult, considering the fact that there is minimal resistance in its current location. As a testament to the apparent weakness of Bitcoin's rally, we can see that volume has dropped significantly, signaling exhaustion in buying pressure. The MACD has maintained a bullish expansion, but that isn't confirmed by a rise in volume. Looking at the current structure of BTC, we can see that it's forming what appears to be a bear flag of sorts (black flag.) At the moment, BTC isn't the only crypto forming a bear flag. Ethereum, Litecoin, Stellar, and many others are also forming some bear flag variants, which are not all easily distinguishable. To be certain, we don't know for sure that this is a bear flag. However, as I said in my latest Ethereum post, it certainly looks, smells, and tastes like a bear flag, and they don't generally taste very good. All kidding aside, we need to see a breakdown from the flag, to know for sure.
On the chart, you can see that there is a bear flag target, which rests at $7,618. With that said, I want everyone to know that I'm not saying that BTC will go there for sure. I'm just showing you that, if this is a bear flag, and if it does break down, it's possible that BTC could reach $7,618 or lower. I cannot stress enough, that we need to see confirmation, to know for sure. Namely, we need to see a breakdown from the flag pattern. Contrarily, a breakout above the topside of the bear flag, will negate it as a bear flag entirely. That being said, I want to point something out on the chart. You can see that above BTC, lies the "heavy resistance" level of the head and shoulders neckline, the 50 EMA (in orange,) the 200 EMA (in purple,) the 50 % retracement level, and the rising black trendline. Below BTC, there are a couple slightly significant support levels, but that's about it. Therefore, the path of least resistance is still down. As a warning, don't be so certain that this small bounce is a sure sign of an end to the selloff. Trust me when I say, the bears a watching, and they're salivating at the growing opportunity for more easy money.
In summary, we now have evidence (bear flag, falling volume, overhead resistance, weak relative performance, etc.) to support the argument for a continuation in the selloff. A breakdown will be confirmation of that evidence.
This has been your not-so-humble market wizard, droppin' knowledge like bombs in this place! Please follow, comment, like, and share on social media! Good luck trading everyone.
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***
Dead Cat Bounce - is a temporary recovery from a prolonged decline or a bear market that is followed by a continuation of the downtrend. The name "dead cat bounce" is based on the notion that even a dead cat will bounce, if it falls far enough and fast enough.
-MPC loves you-
-JD-
As we can see on the four hour chart, BTC has managed to rally off of Wednesday's low. However, the BTC rally appears weak, in comparison to the rest of the crypto space. As I said in my last BTC post "Possible Dead Cat Bounce in Bitcoin! (BTC) MEOOOW!" many of the other cryptos have rallied to their significant overhead resistance levels. However, Bitcoin appears to be running out of gas. It hasn't even made it up to test the "heavy resistance" level, which shouldn't be that difficult, considering the fact that there is minimal resistance in its current location. As a testament to the apparent weakness of Bitcoin's rally, we can see that volume has dropped significantly, signaling exhaustion in buying pressure. The MACD has maintained a bullish expansion, but that isn't confirmed by a rise in volume. Looking at the current structure of BTC, we can see that it's forming what appears to be a bear flag of sorts (black flag.) At the moment, BTC isn't the only crypto forming a bear flag. Ethereum, Litecoin, Stellar, and many others are also forming some bear flag variants, which are not all easily distinguishable. To be certain, we don't know for sure that this is a bear flag. However, as I said in my latest Ethereum post, it certainly looks, smells, and tastes like a bear flag, and they don't generally taste very good. All kidding aside, we need to see a breakdown from the flag, to know for sure.
On the chart, you can see that there is a bear flag target, which rests at $7,618. With that said, I want everyone to know that I'm not saying that BTC will go there for sure. I'm just showing you that, if this is a bear flag, and if it does break down, it's possible that BTC could reach $7,618 or lower. I cannot stress enough, that we need to see confirmation, to know for sure. Namely, we need to see a breakdown from the flag pattern. Contrarily, a breakout above the topside of the bear flag, will negate it as a bear flag entirely. That being said, I want to point something out on the chart. You can see that above BTC, lies the "heavy resistance" level of the head and shoulders neckline, the 50 EMA (in orange,) the 200 EMA (in purple,) the 50 % retracement level, and the rising black trendline. Below BTC, there are a couple slightly significant support levels, but that's about it. Therefore, the path of least resistance is still down. As a warning, don't be so certain that this small bounce is a sure sign of an end to the selloff. Trust me when I say, the bears a watching, and they're salivating at the growing opportunity for more easy money.
In summary, we now have evidence (bear flag, falling volume, overhead resistance, weak relative performance, etc.) to support the argument for a continuation in the selloff. A breakdown will be confirmation of that evidence.
This has been your not-so-humble market wizard, droppin' knowledge like bombs in this place! Please follow, comment, like, and share on social media! Good luck trading everyone.
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***
Dead Cat Bounce - is a temporary recovery from a prolonged decline or a bear market that is followed by a continuation of the downtrend. The name "dead cat bounce" is based on the notion that even a dead cat will bounce, if it falls far enough and fast enough.
-MPC loves you-
-JD-