Taiwan_Bear

Bitcoin dropped as expected, $7k coming?

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
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Last week when Bitcoin broke above the triangle you could see many traders were again calling it to $14k or even higher. They were so focused on the small timeframe while not seeing the market movement from a broader picture. I warned you in my channel specifically for this reason, to pay attention to the weekly timeframe as it was telling another story (chart below).

Clearly, the range of $11500 - $12000 was an important structure to look out for. Why is it important? It was the primary RETEST after breaking below the support in which it confirmed the bear market. As a result, if the weekly candle cannot close above it, it is unwise to think about $14k or even a new ATH .

The bullish weekly candle that had the wick to $13880 and bounced all the way back below $12000 was the first sign of weakness. The subsequent weekly candle retested, confirmed $13k as the resistance (in which I told you to take profits), and closed as a bearish engulfing candle. All these price actions were signifying that the parabolic move has possibly ended. If after seeing all these movements you are still optimistic about breaking $13k in the next few weeks, I would recommend you to go and get a pair of glasses.

What’s going to happen next?
Evidently, the recent price actions have shown there is possibly for more downside movement. And with the formation of a possible double top , IF the price does break below the neckline ($9.6k) and confirm the double top formation, things will not look great at least in the near future.
A number of levels that I mentioned in my group that I will be interested in buying:
Short term (for scalping) - $10030 (daily 50EMA support)
Mid-term (swing trade) – low $8k or between $6.8 & $7.2k
Long term – mid $5k
Investment without SL – between $800 & $1.2k

The above is certainly not a prediction of what will happen next but rather a price range that I will be interested in buying based on the circumstances at that point in time. I am a trader, not a prophesier. See the arrows on my chart? That’s the least of what you should care about. Sadly, that’s what it is all about to most people.

Please do your own research and not follow my advice blindly. I have been telling you my plan and my strategy since 2018 but at the end of day it’s your risk appetite and trading methodology that determine your strategy and your position size.

Taiwan Bear
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Comments

@Taiwan_Bear sir do you really think it can hit $800 & 1.5k? How much chances and what should be the confirmations to watch for such downward move? Please reply.
+3 Reply
@Umarzia, Hi, as I mentioned in the post, I wasn't predicting anything. I have different scenarios in mind and I simply trade based on those scenarios.

There is possibility for anything and I wouldn't be surprised if Bitcoin hits $1k. If 5k can't hold, then $1k is possible. The key is to see good consolidation.
+1 Reply
Umarzia Taiwan_Bear
@Taiwan_Bear, thanks for your reply :)
+1 Reply
Nice analysis @Taiwan_Bear keeping it real as always :) I agree with your targets and from a higher time frame it looks like a double top formation is in play. Of course we need to break the neckline for this pattern to be valid and in that case we could see $7,500 as a realistic first target. Here's my idea reflecting this:
+2 Reply
Taiwan_Bear tommyf1001
@tommyf1001, not breaking yet.
Reply
Taiwan_Bear tommyf1001
@tommyf1001, good analysis
+1 Reply
great job!
+2 Reply
@LoganEX, thanks Logan
Reply
Brilliant work! as always bro.
+2 Reply
Taiwan_Bear HamadaMark
@HamadaMark, thank you brother. Congrats on being be top again!
Reply
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