This latest drive down began hours before Mt.Gox's "earth shattering news update", that they wouldn't be providing an update yet on the status of frozen customer withdrawals. Notice, I said *before* the update. While the "insider exodus" totally threw off a sweet ABCD pattern I was watching, it did get going what we've all been waiting for. The beginning of the end to this long downhill slide... and hopefully Gox as well. (rat bastards)
This chart shows the decent from the $800 consolidation level at the beginning of the month, to now. What is important to note is that the major lows are moving harmonically with time, and guess what time it is. I've averaged out my buys all the way down and I've got one last big shot left. We've blown through the last major support levels at 572 and just now at 550 (turning it into resistance). There's nothing left but bottom. I'll be looking for mid to high 400's before we're through.
be patient and stick to your plan.
Comments
maart0n
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Thank you for you explanations ninja. A wild ride has it been for all of us and I dont think we are done. Somehow it seems to me that fundamental analyses plays the bigger part of crypto right now and im saddened for all the people holding money at gox. This will have a major impact on the whole community if this is not going to be fixed somehow. Obviously we are still in a downtrend and headlines determine if we go any further I guess.
I took a look at harmonic trading (fib), but I find it difficult to see patterns, ah well practice makes perfect they say... Cya around Ninja! :)
nick.stoneman.5
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Hi! Really like your detailed explanations including your replies to comments. Looks like you called the demise of the Gox-hoax rise pretty good. Be nice to get a true bottom so I can buy and hold with the profits I'll make from my short! Of course price can always do anything (was it Jesse Livermore who said that?) but yours and tradingview.com/v/YtUayj8U/ analyses seem to be a very good fit to the reality. Many thanks.
ninjabenja
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Thanks a lot! I'm looking for the bottom closer to $480 (god willing) and I've averaged down all of my entries from 535 to that point. Two of those were filled for an easy profit just this morning. :)
maart0n
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Thank you for you explanation! This sudden rise doesnt feel good and my gut says it needs to go down a bit more before we are going to enter a trendreversal. You have been trading btc for a while now right? Do you find it possible (positive) to use TA on btc or is there too much speculation going on? And how is your long term view?
I will look into this bat pattern to understand it better. Thanks again for sharing your thoughts.
ninjabenja
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Yes I've been trading for a while, but not nearly as long as what you might think. I take trading very seriously and I put every bit as much time and energy into making calculated entry decisions as any business owner would invest in their business. If you're not seeking to qualify your position in as many ways as possible, then you're just gambling- and I suck at gambling. Yes it is completely possible to use TA with btc. With the exception of Gox, this market *wants* to move harmonically and regardless of the FUD or the manipulation or the news, people will act as a group regardless. That is why Fibonacci will always work to provide insight. The secret here is staying one step ahead- averaging your positions up/down to your "ideal" target zone, and not missing the boat completely because you put your entire entry $5 shy of where price action went. This isn't a perfect science, leave room for a spread and keep your stops tight when you can.
My long term view is bullish, (very bullish) and I'll be letting the bulls run as soon as we get reversal confirmation at the 500 level or lower.
maart0n
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Ninjabenja... you have any thoughts about the current rise? I find it hard to draw conclusions only on technical aspects because gox is still in the game... Lost my track a little because of this weird rise....
ninjabenja
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Yeah, that "curious" breakout at the critical turning point where we wanted to see price action move lower.
The widely held view, is that it was the result of a very well orchestrated hoax. (reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1ymb4r/some_light_on_the_horizon_for_gox/) Some people with the technical know-how, made it appear as though withdrawals on Gox were working again. The spike was market reaction but I think the continued stair-stepping up is a combination of denial and restless bulls wanting to get the uptrend underway. I'm working off a completed Bat pattern now, thanks to the hoax break out and I'm still short since *about* 572... shitty deal but I'm not sweating it. Target #2 on the Bat pattern should get us right back to where we started at the 570 level. We're going to see more ups and more downs but I've not seen an evidence contrary to my overall market view, which is lower lows to come.
Bat Pattern completed...
maart0n
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I enjoy your work ninjabenja! It has given me some good understanding of how things work. Keep it up and I will be following you for sure!
ninjabenja
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Thanks so much for the feedback maart0n. I publish my charts so that I can have a record of my analysis, and to make sure I stick to my plan. It's a lot harder to make emotional trigger decisions that way I've found. Also, I noticed when looking at other peoples btc charts, they didn't always explain how they were reaching the conclusions they drew, which kind of bothered me. By clearly identifying why I'm charting the way I am, I can better improve my methods and it allows other people to find benefit (or point out flaws) in my TA as well. Win-win!
As for this chart, if we're going to stay on target for the projection of new lows, we should start to see a turn to the downside here in the next 8 hours or so.
Andulvar
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Great analysis, there is no denying the current trend a new bottom is looming.
I took a look at harmonic trading (fib), but I find it difficult to see patterns, ah well practice makes perfect they say... Cya around Ninja! :)