I think we're witnessing a special time for BTC. It's very possible there's some manipulation coming with the CBOE and CME announcements. Then again, BTC is a global market. It's quite possible the institutional powers that be, have been acquiring bitcoin en mass to dump and crash the market, test its resilience so to speak. Only to follow up with a massive volume purchase by essentially the central banks of the world, as a hedge versus capital flight and push towards digital currencies as a whole. That's what I would do if I had control of the printing press. Missed the boat? Add zeros, buy BTC in numerous accounts. Sell off once the new wave of investors came in. Establish CME and CBOE so you can profit legally and add it to your books, meanwhile you're preparing to buy as much volume as you can just to control the markets. They print money after all, why not buy as much as possible with shadow funds?
Okay so if you're still with me, that's obviously a conspiracy theory, doesn't mean it's not possible. Let's move on to Elliot Wave analysis of this current rally. If there is no manipulation at hand here, then we are looking very long in the tooth for this rally. We can see the end of wave 3 upon us at 13.9k, with a small pullback. Makes sense psychologically as well. Many new people in the market, see the gains, the pullback, the support above 10k, builds confidence. That leaves wave 5, which puts it at the 4.36 fib extension at 15.8k, followed by the start of a corrective pattern. This is where I'd look to take profit. But, what if BTC breaks out of the limits of tradingview's fib extension projections? It could go to jaw dropping levels, along the lines of my theory above. Drawing people in, thinking there's no downside, start dumping in as much capital as possible. Meanwhile they've got thousands of drone accounts, ready for a time-lapse coordinated sell off. I'm not sure whether I should trade the chart, or the sentiment. I think it's best to expect the unexpected.
What are your thoughts?
Comment
⋅
The fibs on this extension work pretty well. I had to work a ways back and find the last ABC supercycle (is that right?). This seems like wave 5, shocking everyone in typical bitcoin fashion. Check out the chart, what do you think? Im super bullish. The daily looks great! I know, its supposed to correct, but check the fib levels. We've been bouncing between them. Check the fib time extensions, also lining up. This lines up with holidays, when everyone will be chatting about how BTC has doubled their money in no time. More people buy in. Days after they invest and pump the price up to one of these ridiculous fib extensions. The CME and CBOE will have their day. And crypto will bleed. They will buy the dip with all their drone accounts and drive the price even higher. It's hard to say what will happen, but its all bullish until we realize the truth. Buy precious metals with profits. Hold real money. None of this is advice, it's disinformation.
Whether true or not (your conspiracy part) I find your input valuable. Food for thoughts.
CharlesJohnson92
⋅
Every time I think there is a limit to where it can go I get proven wrong. Too much too fast. I'm afraid to buy at this time and be stuck holding a 13,000 dollar bag. People are buying into the hype and others are selling it. Money is being made yes but when the rumor is over and the news happens, talking about the futures trading. What happens. When the price corrects and the new guys now see red in their ledger will they panic and sell? A lot of people are looking at the hillside, I wondering about the Clift on the other side.
mmitkevich
⋅
Your (1) is ((3)) your (3) is ((5)) IMO
UnknownUnicorn908250
⋅
@mmitkevich, thanks for the input. I saw that as well, and debated the assignment. So you think this is the last push before the corrective wave comes in somewhere around 13.8k? The problem with this is that it feels too soon. I think futures will be in operation before the next correction. We'll see either way. If you wouldn't mind posting your Elliot wave chart, if love to compare.
Cheers.
UnknownUnicorn908250
⋅
@mmitkevich The other problem I've had fitting the impulse waves into the previous cycle, is that Wave 3 may be too short. That and the Fib extensions already line up so well with this projection from the previous rally/correction. Please post charts though.