I have made a lot of comments about the long term bull case for bitcoin. Really that comes in the form of a number of different angles and analysis, which I might suggest a couple more ways of looking at things.
This one goes on the assumption that the price follows historic price action, which it often doesnt. At these prices retail traders are put off, and institution plays a vital role in propping up prices. Fair value of bitcoin is under greater focus the higher the price, and hands get weaker at tops, until new supports are created. In this run we are yet to find a floor for value. Whilst this chart doesnt show a downward price discovery, one will need to happen at some point.
This simply goes on the assumption that IF price continues to match the pattern, and we assume that percentage increase also matches, the price will top at around $320,000usd per btc.
I should note, although I am personally a longterm permabull (year timeframe), I am short term trading trends and always open to short opportunities as well as long term opportunities. This is one bullish outlook, based on certain hand-picked facts. It is not my only outlook, and I could create an equally bearish chart given the time!
@crasherb, yes this analysis has not aged well. I think many - myself included - expected BTC parabolic run. In hindsight that mindsight of the bulls was taken advantage of by larger players to exit the market and purchase lower down. On a positive note more recent charts on mine reflect a potential reversal with this information in mind. Although with the (retail) market as emotional as it is there is no telling what might happen next.