I agree 100% Fink. Just waiting for the narrative to change. The Feds are about to drop helicopter money after all.
bitcointrader3764
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the cost of production has absolutely no effect on the price...when the gold price drops below production costs of a mine...they shut it down ...coal production ceased, not because of climate change issues, but because the production costs were higher than alternatives like gas. You could shut down 75% of mining and reduce supply of new coins which eventually, if demand is sufficient, will increase price. At this time....demand is insufficent. There is an inpending financial crisis that MAY see circa 1929 events. BTC is no safe haven. Even Gold is heading south. It wasnt the end back then, it wont be the end now....but thinking all the players in the crypto space care about production costs...is economically unsound. Only thing about crypto that works is supply and demand (and the inevitable manipulations by big players in a very small marketplace...) The miners may try to hold the price up for a while....but my guess is...they will be doing it to try and cash out...rather than accumulate at these levels...
mljones
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@bitcointrader3764, btc has followed the stock to flow model to within the noise levels it sets so far, so it is not accurate to say production cost has no effect on price.
bitcointrader3764
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@mljones, you see a lot of comparisons by people of BTC and Gold but at this point in time I think diamonds are a better comparison. They are rare, but not so rare that they are still being mined. However, diamonds are also being stored in vaults by there millions by DeBeers to hold up the price. Even then when the prices dip, they slow or stopped mining production. Gold is far rarer than diamonds...the percentage mined to that in existence is much smaller, the spread of holdings much wider. In both however, price is driven by demand not production cost. Think of miners as central banks...they hold the big deposits and NEED the price to be in profitable ranges. When all the coin has been mined is the price miraculously going switch to supply/demand...or maybe it has been that way all along...
As a note...can anyone think of any commodity where price is driven by cost of production? I cant.
sirous41533
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production cost is about 70004-8000.And price is about 3000 lower than it.It is not logical,So price should go up,but the energy price also came down and it didn't calculated in your oscillator.Am I right?
ENIGMA1440
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@sirous41533, Exactly... Also counting in that the production cost should just about double to 14k after halving due to reward being cut in half,
mljones
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@sirous41533, no, there are a lot of miners that just mine no matter what. For instance people who have one GPU or ASIC and they're off doing other things. They don't manually shut down the hardware every time BTC crashes they just mine through the dips at a temporary loss.
mljones
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Hash ribbons never crossed over for me. Is it broken for you also?