I recently shared a post which illustrated how to use the OBV (attached - please review) which showed us how and why it is useful.
In short, it combines cumulative price direction AND volume and helps illustrate where critical relative volumous price action takes place, relative to that which has taken place before it.
In this chart we can see that once Bitcoin bottomed in 2015, only the final run up back to the pre-capitulative level saw Bitcoin's OBV retrace 38% off the highs. That run, took Bitcoin back about 24% of the way back to its ATH which was around $400.
Should Bitocin continue its current run and get another volume kicker, throguh volume or other, it woudl indicate that Bitcoin could ultimately break back across 6k.
The reason why i think this could be possible is for the following reasons:
1) Due to the almighty fomo that would come about when people realise that they cannot by lower or even at the 3K level they were at.. im expecting disbelief in the comments and that is just confirmation for me. I.e. this would cause the most upset and confusion. 2) Cycles are shortening because people know what the halvning hype does to price, which we have seen with LTC already. 3) The role volume plays is largly being overlooked. 4) Mt Gox coins are now likely to be locked up for future years. 5) i would like to win my bet with Lucid investments / Hyperwave before the end of the year :))) (personal bias)
Anyway, an interesting observation so i thought i would share it - there is a lot of resistance above, but i wouldnt count out a mega wick to the upside.
If you like this analysis you can follow me on twitter and my other work. same handle.
The hyper wave theory would take a hit wouldn’t it.
ReallyMe
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The more optimistic outlooks and LONG ideas and appear on TV, the higher the likelihood that BTC will plummet
IkemenJ
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I thought MtGox coins were going to be sold or returned to their owners. Is that not correct?
erelerel
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amazing work dude as always!
weslad
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I have this feeling about BTC either we retrace or we start big dump
ENIGMA1440
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Nice work Filb!
IkemenJ
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Congrats, you nailed that one. You selling or keeping the btc you bought down lower? Tough call.
perolason
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Interesting to follow, so far so good!
jimdude
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Ouch, my two favourite TradingView authors (filbfilb and Magic Poop Cannon) are at odds in the short term! Thanks for all the great content. I’ve learned a lot from you both over the last couple of years.