After my most recent BTC analysis compared fractals on the wide long-term 1W time-frame, since the price is currently consolidating on such a tight range, I decided it would be productive if I looked for fractal comparisons on the narrower short-term time-frames, on 4H in particular.
The key observation made was between the current pattern of December and that of late September - early October. As you see it is interesting to say the least, that the structures of the two formations have been (so far) virtually identical. Both are major consolidation / accumulation phases (Rectangle pattern), starting with a Lower Highs trend-line (steps 1 & 2) above the 4H MA20 (red trend-line) and continuing with a rejection on that MA20 (step 3).
So far this is were we are on the current December structure. On September 30, that was followed by the third break above the 4H MA20, which presented the 1st Bullish Signal, then moved to a break above the Lower Highs trend-line (step 4) and extended quickly to a break above the 4H MA100 (green trend-line) which gave the 2nd Bullish Signal and marked the start of the complete recovery for Bitcoin (step 5). The structure was then completed by a break into the Resistance Zone and a short consolidation towards the 4H MA20 that really boosted the October rally.
How do you perceive this structure? If we are currently on step (3) we should be really looking for that third and final break above the 4H MA20 and the Lower Highs trend-line (step 4) that will basically confirm the recovery. See also how even the RSI structures are identical, with the RSI's consolidation basically starting on step (1).
What is your opinion on that? Will this fractal be repeating in the exact same order? Have we bottomed in your opinion? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!
@GunMoney, Tend to agree, that last wick will inevitably engulf but not before Saylor bucks bailout stimulus package inbound lol. Good post!
jasonrappa
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@GunMoney, I hope you're right. I'll be taking profits if it comes close...
Schwben
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I searched for a few fractals too and found them, all point to the similar move of the price, as you show. And eventhough huge companys adopted bitcoin into their system (Whatsapp/Meta, Paypal, etc) the retail investors seems to be quite feared out. That is a good sign, cause in the end of bull run 2017 everybody was greedy and now they are fearfull af. I just think that it will take a bit longer for Bitcoin to move up again, but nive work :)
@Schwben well, supply side, exchanges are at almost an all time low in btc liquidity, whales own close to 60% of the supply, we haven’t even gotten a redistribution of whales into retail for a blow off top. We’re barely into Nov 2020 where LTH’s started selling. And we had a 3X run from there. Also taproot is a big deal, and Q1 BTC tech announcements.
GreenBunny
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BTC right now making higher low lower low it means downtrend. Previous it was "solid" support, touched the same area 6-7 times, and jumped. What scenario going to be if the price will go back below 50ma?