Just documenting this one. I think it's clear the bear market started, and I can already anticipate what we can see going forward...prices could eventually peak at $75,000 on the next bull run, but we will have to wait patiently for that. My plan is to accumulate more BTC value in my crypto account with my remaining funds, and simply holding off from adding cash until it is clear the market is at the bottom of the correction. Cheers,
I think we have a chance that the rally will remain in this sideways state until June. I reviewed the inflation adjusted BTCUSD chart and the time for the uptrend to end falls between May and June of this year according to it. Considering the dollar depreciated significantly since 2009, the inflation adjusted chart might make more sense than using the normal one for long term forecasting.
I bought back some BTC with my ETH holdings for now, given that ETH is likely to consolidate for 15 days.
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ETH did start a consolidation as I expected. BTC fell below the stop zone for the longs though, so I'm out of it. I never got to sell ETH, since it was taking ages to get to the exchange and I decided against selling. I hold crypto solely as a hedge for my exposure to brokerage firms currently, so I'm not worried if the whole market crashes and burns. It's a hedge, and a long term position, I can eat a 50-90% loss on it and still not be worried, but hopefully I will be on time to hedge my USD value by going short BTC anywhere.
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BTC WAS rekt...now should turn up again.
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A couple guesses for the consolidation patterns. Depending on how it pans out, upside targets could end up being between 100k and 1 million, in the long term, after the 20 month consolidation period ends and we get a new signal of that scale.
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Daily uptrend signal forming in BTCUSD After this pans out, we could either go sideways for months, or break the ATH, culminating in a top by May/June. Chances are we saw the long term bottom in BTC already, from the last peak at least.
@IvanLabrie, I managed to reduce crypto exposure as well. However I still hold ZEC. I don't like how it looks on USD pair, but BTC pair still seems promising. I hope it goes well. Good luck, Ivan.
IvanLabrie
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@DomarkasM, best of luck. Check out the zecud forecast I had made. Looks viable to hold for a few more weeks.
BRRD
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@DomarkasM, carbon copy of how the 2013 bubble popped. China news came out to catalyse the second major drop to the high 300s.
DomarkasM
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@BRRD, it could be, but this time we have 1000+ altcoins. I personally do not own BTC, but I do own alts. And BTC market dominance is at its lows. I wonder what will happen.
BRRD
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@DomarkasM, biggest question on my mind at the moment is whether or not BTC support is sufficient to make a rerun of the mid-part of 2013 - ie new highs in the summer - or if the bear market takes much longer like post-2013.
For alts I don't have a clue what's going to happen! I'm all out, probably for a few months at least.
DomarkasM
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@BRRD, Well I'm not touching BTC until its in the range of 7000-8000 USD. If it does not reach this level, I think it will bleed for what will seem like eternity. If it consolidates for a year or two, we will have plenty of time to gather monetary resources and jump onto BTC wagon :)