dfsemeraro
Long

Bitcoin's Bull/Bear Streak History

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
On the one-day chart, I counted how long each of Bitcoin's streaks were. How long were the up streaks and how long were the down streaks. Some subjective, but understandable, criteria was added. Lone doji's are not factored in. Doji's in between streaks are ignored because I think most traders would have the patience to hold for a day, especially if it meant more growth the next few days. For example, if a 4day bear trend growth was 1% / 1% / 2% / 3%, I wouldn't count the first two because that is not enough confirmation but if they were in between a stretch of growth, they would be considered because this chart is based on when to hold and when to sell. Duration is measured over ROI             because traders care about how long they need to hold and how long they need to abstain.

If you observed any interesting trends out of this, please let me know in the comments. One I've observed is symmetry, perhaps having to do with phases of accumulation and distribution. How many days a market surges can give us an indication of how many days it corrects. If a market is forming a reversal, we can set our expectations within the ballpark range of how many days it took to top. Another observation I made is that streaks were longer than I thought they would be. I assumed that the market appeared to have a few bull days followed by a few bear days but this is only because my bias of checking the market more than once a day, and at different times. For example, if a market is bearish for two days in a row, it may start to be bullish on the first half of the 3rd day, but it goes down during the afternoon and night.
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