Developing on an idea from yesterday where i explain the economic cycle of an investor via bitcoin chart, i have elaborated on this by running the same process across the chart from 2014 to 2018.
The chart speaks for itself. All points needed to know/note are clearly marked on the chart.
The cycle is clear and the trend is clear.
The point of which the next expansion/pre-recession will end? That's not something i could say for sure yet, although, based on averages, 78K looks good.
Interesting chart. However, what about volume? After the 2013 peak the volume first decreased and then started increasing, peaking at the market bottom. For example, in July 2014 the volume was at its lowest, similar to the current situation. Since then it had been increasing until the first bottom in January 2015, when it peaked. Would it make sense to wait for a high volume before calling the bottom? What if we're currently in a May or July 2014 rather than May 2015 environment?
coinprobing
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@nummus, Granted. Volume does not coincide with this chart and of course it is a factor of which should be considered. Given that, if this is the case as you mention, we are very much in the region of May through June 14 and further decline is en-route and we will break long term trend line. If this becomes true, bottom will not find itself until 1K or Sub 1K.
Another reason to back up your argument based on volume is that generally, with the economics of an investor, we should dip below long term trend line in a "loop" form and move back above again.
The reason I don't see this as the likely outcome is simply due to the markets economic scale now compared to 2014 but all things considered, your point is something I am watching and will update further in a few days.
Thank you for your comment.
nummus
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@coinprobing, Of course, I have not idea what will happen, but I would be surprised if this was the bottom. Having said that, I wouldn't be surprised to see another major rally (short squeeze rally if you wish) before bottoming.