"Is this the bottom?" "Are we at the start of a new uptrend?!" "Bitcoin to 100k EOY 2018?!?!"
I will try to answer all of these questions...
First, we are NOT at the start of anything yet, because there has been no confirmation made.
On the daily chart, we haven't even made a higher high! If you follow the black trendlines, it basically forms a descending triangle. There may be a newer uptrend line that can be drawn since we have had higher lows the past couple months, but what is the SLOPE of that line?
... It looks pretty weak to me. More like a bear flag than a breakout.
But, anything is possible! Could we reverse from here? Sure. But, have we gotten any confirmation yet? I don't think we have. Sure, Altcoins are booming, but has bitcoin even broke 7k? Has bitcoin even broken the larger downtrend line of lower highs? Nope.
Alas, there is my chart. I have drawn historic support levels in blue, and historic resistance levels in red.
- The Green Box is where price will re-test the trend line for lower highs. Breaking that is the first step.
- Next is the Pink Box. If we break that area, I do believe we will be safely in bullish territory for at least the remainder of Q4.
- The Yellow Boxes are local supports, that I think price will likely retest with a vengeance at some point.
- The Blue Box is the massive base support. I don't think we go lower than that, if we do break 3k, my days will lose color and my life will suck.
Thank you all, let's enjoy the show!! Be careful about opening positions in between support and resistance zones!
But if you practice good risk management, I believe there is still some time to catch these altcoin profits!
Good luck investors and traders :)
I will try to answer all of these questions...
First, we are NOT at the start of anything yet, because there has been no confirmation made.
On the daily chart, we haven't even made a higher high! If you follow the black trendlines, it basically forms a descending triangle. There may be a newer uptrend line that can be drawn since we have had higher lows the past couple months, but what is the SLOPE of that line?
... It looks pretty weak to me. More like a bear flag than a breakout.
But, anything is possible! Could we reverse from here? Sure. But, have we gotten any confirmation yet? I don't think we have. Sure, Altcoins are booming, but has bitcoin even broke 7k? Has bitcoin even broken the larger downtrend line of lower highs? Nope.
Alas, there is my chart. I have drawn historic support levels in blue, and historic resistance levels in red.
- The Green Box is where price will re-test the trend line for lower highs. Breaking that is the first step.
- Next is the Pink Box. If we break that area, I do believe we will be safely in bullish territory for at least the remainder of Q4.
- The Yellow Boxes are local supports, that I think price will likely retest with a vengeance at some point.
- The Blue Box is the massive base support. I don't think we go lower than that, if we do break 3k, my days will lose color and my life will suck.
Thank you all, let's enjoy the show!! Be careful about opening positions in between support and resistance zones!
But if you practice good risk management, I believe there is still some time to catch these altcoin profits!
Good luck investors and traders :)
Comment:
I did not draw trend lines for the lower lows (Feb '18 - June '18), or the higher lows (June '18 to present), but they are there if you visualize a line connecting the lowest points on the chart, which converge at the yearly low 5.8k in June 2018
Comment:
And what I try to point out in the analysis is that the slope of the lower lows line was steeper than the current line of higher lows... and that is why I suggest caution!
Comment:
Another thing. The arrows are not meant to be literal, I ran out of space on the chart, so I just drew the lines to represent price moves, not the amount of time those moves would take.
Comment:
I also think the black trend line could have been slightly lower if I used the May and Sept. highs for the trendline. This would lower the critical resistance zone by around $100
Comment:
Something has to happen soon...
Comment:
We are really pinching now... breakout in a direction is expected. We have not confirmed up or down yet, and are still in a no-trade zone for bitcoin. This leads me to still be semi-bullish on my alt trades despite the recent losses. Good luck traders :)
Comment:
Very creepy, bitcoin! Knock it off!
Comment:
This can't go on much longer !!!!
Comment:
We may be moving for a retest of our first support zone around 5.8k. Price never broke our green zone
Comment:
Price also got firmly rejected by our downtrend line in black
Comment:
So we failed to break out of the triangle a few days ago, and before even reaching support we blew through the green and red zone.
Now we are back just under the triangle line. I see another possible formation forming, and will update shortly
Now we are back just under the triangle line. I see another possible formation forming, and will update shortly
Comment:
The first week of November looks to be very important for bitcoin!
Here is the update!! I drew out some potential patterns that are forming. We have the largest pattern, our descending triangle (still potentially bearish), and on smaller time frames, an ascending triangle (potentially bullish). The RSI has also been adhering to its support /resistance levels quite well.
But something I noticed while charting was that a lot of these patterns, both large and small, come to an end in the time frame between October 31 and November 6! I truly believe we are going to see something during that time frame that will give us a good future indication of the market.
This last short squeeze was nice! Let's see if we can break the upwards resistance and close above it.
The first week of November looks to be very important for bitcoin!
Here is the update!! I drew out some potential patterns that are forming. We have the largest pattern, our descending triangle (still potentially bearish), and on smaller time frames, an ascending triangle (potentially bullish). The RSI has also been adhering to its support /resistance levels quite well.
But something I noticed while charting was that a lot of these patterns, both large and small, come to an end in the time frame between October 31 and November 6! I truly believe we are going to see something during that time frame that will give us a good future indication of the market.
This last short squeeze was nice! Let's see if we can break the upwards resistance and close above it.
Comment:
I follow the markets as close as I can, but I too am still learning to trade, even after a year. All I can do is offer my best insights to the market, and where I think it's at. It is my goal to continue learning, and become more and more accurate as time goes on. That being said, it's time to get out the popcorn.
Comment:
So far so good! Still eyes on Bitcoin
Comment:
UPDATE: We landed right smack in the center of the first yellow buy-in zone. I reloaded a little here. Watch for the signs of reversal and continuation, and set your orders for the second buy-in zone in case of continuation
Comment:
Second buy in zone reached, and actually we are coming closer to the start of the blue support zone. I am loading my bags here