I'm starting to think that the extreme disparity of opinions regarding Bitcoin will lead to a sideways range that will end up frustrating everyone: both the late comer bulls who went in due to FOMO recently, who expect immediate upside from here, and the 'bears' who either sold too early and missed the move or got liquidated shorting or are holding losing shorts somehow.
I'm looking to buy back soon, possibly gradually over time, on any decent enough dip, while I monitor sentiment and fundamental developments.
The start of the next long term bullish trend will change depending on how low we retrace from July onwards. This is due to the nature of Time@mode trends, I could explain the rationale if interested. For now, be careful if trading, the only people making money from here onwards will be liquidity providers likely, or exchanges! At least until the next huge trend starts by either, September-October, January-February or March-April (2 month timeframe trend analysis).
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
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#BTCUSD has a 6 day uptrend signal, targets on chart, crypto markets will likely rally for 5 more days after today, giving us a good chance to hedge by the end of this signal
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It sure did take until the March deadline to finalize the sideways period...
Please explain rationale.
If I read your chart correct:
- you do not expect prices lower than 6193
- BTC can retrace to 6193 only before 1 september
- after 1 sep it can retrace only to 6600
I don't know how far prices will retrace, the zones I labeled on the chart are colored:
-yellow is the largest 'activity' level currently between 6425 and 6481ish. There are currently 9 bars in the 2-Month timeframe that traded there during their duration.
-green is the second largest level with 7 bars that traded inside that range.
-cyan is the smallest of the high volume/time/activity price ranges that we can observe in this timeframe. 6 bars.
Time@mode helps you understand market trends. A market moves mostly in the same direction until it stops making higher highs for enough time, and needs to be accumulated to coil enough to go up steadily again.
Ideally a strong trend will cause a market to go up for the same time duration as the amount of bars that traded in the same range during the consolidation that came before, after which a new consolidation forms, and from there the next breakout and the next trend will occur eventually.
In 2013-2015, the 'mode' or level with the most activity was 10 bars long, in the 2-M timeframe. This time around, we still don't have enough time at the accumulation level to resume the long term bull trend. Since fundamentals for Bitcoin remain bullish, I would assume we need to trigger a strong trend with enough accumulation, and not a weaker trend signal with a less than ideal amount of bars at the 'mode'.
For that to happen, if we retrace to 6400+-, it will only require one bar after the end of June, to retest 6400, and then surge up triggering the bullish trend.
If we only retrace near 7400, we will need to spend more time moving sideways...
sergionero
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@IvanLabrie, Got main point! thanks!
Easy speaking "consolidation launchpads" should be the same size before every move as far as I understand.
Maybe there should be more robust measure for the size of consolidation, not dependent on timeframe.
I would think about it.
Thanks!
kaka900
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1) Market was in sideways most of 2018 already
kaka900
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@kaka900, 2) " both the late comer bulls who went in due to FOMO recently, who expect immediate upside from here, and the 'bears' who either sold too early and missed the move or got liquidated shorting or are holding losing shorts somehow. "
there are bulls, bears and FOMOers in every market
herkuljee
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@kaka900, I think he’s referring to the markets going faster and higher than anticipated by those who bought 4k regions
IvanLabrie
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@kaka900, but I'm not seeing prevalence of one camp over the other in an overwhelming manner like I was seeing bears near 3000-6000.
Je_Buurman
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Please, In a nuttshell, what do you mean by "Time@mode trends"