BTCUSD and Truncated Fifths: The Black Swan

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice, and I do not have training sufficient to give financial advice. For me, this is a hobby.

The Black Swan
Truncated fifth waves in Bull and Bear Markets revealed in Daily chart and below in Weekly chart. Bear Market truncation of Wave C's lesser-degree Wave (v). Original analysis with alternate counts is linked. Comments are welcomed.
Weekly Chart

Indicators and Outlook
Expect an uptick in price by the end of 22 Oct Weekly candle but potentially by the close of today's Daily candle. This event might have already occurred.

Price would then trade sideways for a seemingly extended time frame as negative sentiment grows. BTC and altcoin price-cycles might remain synchronized throughout Depression but will be visibly contrasted by Disbelief, where advocacy of a continued Bear market will dominate. Hope will strike unexpectedly and, in hindsight, the start of the new market cycle will be obvious.
Comment: Congrats to those traders who went Long. Bear rugs are currently selling at cost. My charts indicate my analysis of the new cycle potentially beginning today or during this Weekly candle. I wouldn't have risked my life on that call, but I did risk a substantial position. We will see how things continue to play out and if Bulls truly got the last laugh. Comments are welcomed.

Were There Indicators?
There's been recent FUD about USDT collapsing. This rumor spread last year prior to the rally. There might be some truth to the USDT arbitrage rumors, but taken in conjunction with last year's USDT prior-rally spike this was likely Bulls loading up for the run. Recently 'Bears' have been very outspoken and at times harshly insulting. Could they really know something that we don't or be trying to save us from loss? Or, could they be Bulls in Bear's clothing priming the market for a rally? The more sudden and severe the FUD is the more you should question it.

Where Are We Now?
The growing negative sentiment of the market is clear, and BTC and altcoin cycles seem to be diverging. Today's current peak of ~$7,800 approximately reached last cycle's Wave 1 peak of $7,900. Therefore, is plausible to consider we've reached Disbelief of a new cycle. If so then we can expect further FUD about this 'one-off rally' and a 'big dip' just around the corner. I wouldn't be surprised to see an uptick in old and new rumors about the legality of cryptocurrencies and trading.

I don't advocate blindly ignoring crypto news, but personally I will remain weary. Hope will strike as suddenly as today's rally did but with more intensity.
Comment: Potential count and forecast

Just a possibility to be aware of. Also possible Bulls will cause this Wave to end as triangle (hopefully ascending:) instead of Wave C as depicted.
Comment: Looking like we don't have the volume to get the B retracement I charted. Might just head to $6550 area, which could enable the volume for another leg up.
Comment: Morning update: I’m more uncertain about last night’s potential count. Since yesterday’s price spike the shape of BTC in 15 - 1 hr views are more of an increasingly Bull market and transition from Depression to Disbelief. Other traders have posted updates about continued sideways trading, which would corroborate this transition as I’ve previously mentioned.
Comment: For you fractal fans.
Comment: Main differences of fractals patterns are consistent with the Black Swan analysis. The dampened 2018 retrace is from truncated Wave 5 and the dampened Sept 2018 drop is from truncated Wave C.

And with that, my outlook continues to grow in optimism.
Comment: Only conjecture at the moment, but interesting conjecture nonetheless.

Comparing the above fractals (if they can be considered that), today’s timeframe is roughly 2/3 of 2014’s. Extrapolating this indicates a considerable pump by mid-December, dump by January, and sideways trading until late Feb or March. In other words, Disbelief could peak (price rises then falls/Bull trap) at end of year and Hope could come by March.

Psychologically, this makes sense. Bears will expect Santa to bring ‘the big drop’ and Bulls will expect ‘the big rally’. Bull’s will eagerly buy-in to the smaller rally and become trapped. Bears will be pleased with smaller drop and continue to call for the big one. This primes the market for whales to truly kick things off in March.
Comment: Narrowing Down Bull Scenarios
The re-emerging 2013/2014 pattern fueled me to spend hours last night and this morning re-assessing BTCUSD(T). In doing so I’ve decided upon two Bull scenarios, which I won’t re-evaluate for some time.

Scenario 1
Based on the main chart of this Idea and reoccurrence of the 2013/2014 pattern (after considering our truncated fifths). We are only now trudging through Depression. Until the year’s end we can expect several small traps. Price will likely remain between $7.9k and $6k. By January we should begin a trek upwards with a peak by March at Disbelief.

Scenario 2
Based on BTC chart from a previous Idea (provides below) and assessments of LTCETH and LTCBTC. BTC entered Depression with June’s low and began its trek to Disbelief with October’s price spike. We’ll likely reach Disbelief by the year’s end. Ignoring the timeframe, the below chart roughly depicts this.

I am a significant LTC holder and noticed optimistic LTCETH patterns in Daily and Weekly. Similarly, LTCBTC is likely to increase, though not as significantly as LTCETH’s patterns indicate. This indicates a the potential that BTC is going to take off before ETH, thereby drastically increasing LTCETH.

Bear Scenarios
There are plenty Bear Ideas out there to consider so I’ll keep this limited to my only Bear scenario. As shown in the below chart, my original BTC low target was $4,800. It’s still a possibility, though I am now Bullish on BTC.
Comment: Apologize for the Bold failure. Here’s the chart.
Comment: $6540 target hit. Might continue towards $6405 before back up to test $7k-$7.2k as resistance.
Comment: Bull Market started 15 October following the end of a truncated Wave C. Private idea linked below, zoomed in chart image also provided.

Comment: Possible low between $6410 - $6390 (TP $6405), though, personally, I’d remain neutral (not short) as a holder. Price could jump at anytime to between $7600 - $8000.
Comment: To clarify, resistance at ~$7k. Price likely won’t break through during current weekly candle but will likely break through during next weekly candle to retest $7.6k - $8k.
Comment: Continued Optimism
Chart should speak for itself. Depicts two upwards trending Support levels. Price currently in green wedge. If price breaks below to the blue Support line then expect to see a ~$6300 low. The blue line still is still an upwards trends.

Comment: Currently below green line support. If closes below it on 2H TF then likely chance price continues down towards ~$6315.
Comment: Looks like we might be staying above green line after all!
Comment: Under green support line again. Need to close above $6564 (Bitfinex) on 2H else down to $6400’s, possibly down to ~$6315.
Comment: Correction - need to close above $6564 on 4H TF.
Comment: Tonight into tomorrow morning (EST) will be interesting. BTC closed below green line support on 4H, but looks to be trading sideways. Since it closed below price can potentially head towards ~$6300 before bouncing back up. However, there were decent drops in each of the Indices today. This creates the possibility for traders to usher in new capital and prevent BTC from dropping. This could even give BTC price a nice bump. Time will tell.
Comment: Solely conjecture. I'm speculative Whales are pushing price down to cause FUD because of the perceived correlation with US Index Funds that is created. BTC is not correlated with US Index Funds. If that were true then BTC would have reached a new ATH in 2018 like the Indices did.
Comment: Daily TF price ranges I'm looking out for.
Comment: Shaded rectangular resistance/support regions are price ranges. If price enters then potential for it to break through channel increases, i.e., if orange range reached then higher chance of dropping into orange channel. If red rectangular range reached higher chance of drop into red region from orange. If green range maintained on Daily then higher chance of long-term upwards breakout.
Comment: Potential wave count of lesser degree waves 1 and 2 of new market cycle. Price might not drop to wave c targets since w2 already retraced much of w1. Point is, don’t be alarmed if price approaches indicated targets. If price drops below $6220.3 then count is invalidated.
Comment: Wave c targets based on 24% and 30% of Wave a length. If valid, won’t go below (i) $6220.3 price.
Comment: Ugh... Meant (0) price of $6220.3 NOT (i).
Comment: Yes, wb only retraced ~11% of wa. As low as 10% can occur in B running triangles. Wave b here likely ended at last green candle prior to the 25th.
Comment: Just realized I never stated the targets and that I posted a chart instead of private idea (to see for yourself). Though, again it's possible price won't reach targets. Count invalid if it breaks below $$6220.3.
TP: $6354 - $6275, extreme bottom $6220.3
Comment: Meant to originally depict wave c targets. Hopefully this makes things more clear.
Comment: Apologies. I have made blunder after blunder with this recent count. The red price line should indicate $6,220.3 NOT $6,160.3.
Comment: Hit both targets. Currently in Orange channel depicted in chart from 25 Oct update. Price spike potentially touched the triangle’s top, though I suspect we’ve broken upwards based on the price stability. This is not 100%. November is typically bullish for BTC which is good. Also, alts have clearly diverged from BTC and ETH in their cycles (USD/USDT equivalent price cycles). Going camping next four days but hope to get an updated chart out before departing.
Comment: Have an amazing chart I hope to get out in several hours. Confirms breakout and test of support. So LONG Bears. Next year tentative high $25k-$40k!
Comment: For now, zoomed in snapshot of the much larger chart.
Comment: New idea is finished and published! Further updates will likely only be posted to new idea.
BTC might jump tomorrow. :D
+1 Reply
Teklologist alanmasters
@alanmasters, yes that's what I'm speculating as well. I think Whales are creating FUD by pushing BTC price down to appear correlated with US Indices so that they can load up more in lieu of an impending pump.
+1 Reply
alanmasters Teklologist
@Teklologist, This is a hard market to predict...
Your charting is outstanding! Really clear... I appreciate it! Namaste
+1 Reply
The fud is real just because bitfinex shutdown the ability to withdraw for select user groups. This halted arbit bots and thus allowed the price to inflate $1000 more on bitfinex than other exchanges while their own USDT was priced at $0.90 (10% under a $1). So the theory behind the USDT fud is legit what happens next is speculation ;)
@run_eth, Sure. Or, a Bull or group seized the initiative on the impending run by exploiting USDT to their advantage. Many 'conspiracy theorists' argue chicken-and-egg theories on whether FUD is created pre- or post-event. For instance, a Whale decides to sell and knows the ramifications to us little fish. The Whale would rather pin the consequences on something else than than on itself. In other words, this USDT debacle could have been planned.
run_eth Teklologist
@Teklologist, I get that perspective. I am bear so I am unable to agree with it but my point here is not which side of the trade to be on but rather that the noise around tether is not to simply be ignored. If it is manufactured fud then Bitfinex themselves may be under the scrutiny of many traders. Be it they are innocent or not, the damage is done and there will be even more noise tomorrow when withdraws are opened up again (ETA undetermined). So all I am saying is to keep your eyes open that the fud may not be fake. https://twitter.com/JaPennz/status/1051751551671328768
+1 Reply
@run_eth, I agree not to blindly ignore news and speculation. However, the more sudden and severe it is the more I speculate about ulterior motives. Similar FUD happened with TRON when an investor sold/moved TRX. Again, something similar happened last year when BTC dropped and BCH started to rally right before Coinbase announced it being added. Who watches the watchers?
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