The Black Swan
Truncated fifth waves in Bull and Bear Markets revealed in and below in Weekly chart. Bear Market truncation of Wave C's lesser-degree Wave (v). Original analysis with alternate counts is linked. Comments are welcomed.
Indicators and Outlook
Expect an uptick in price by the end of 22 Oct Weekly candle but potentially by the close of today's Daily candle. This event might have already occurred.
Price would then trade sideways for a seemingly extended time frame as negative sentiment grows. BTC and altcoin price-cycles might remain synchronized throughout Depression but will be visibly contrasted by Disbelief, where advocacy of a continued Bear market will dominate. Hope will strike unexpectedly and, in hindsight, the start of the new market cycle will be obvious.
Were There Indicators?
There's been recent FUD about USDT collapsing. This rumor spread last year prior to the rally. There might be some truth to the USDT arbitrage rumors, but taken in conjunction with last year's USDT prior-rally spike this was likely Bulls loading up for the run. Recently 'Bears' have been very outspoken and at times harshly insulting. Could they really know something that we don't or be trying to save us from loss? Or, could they be Bulls in Bear's clothing priming the market for a rally? The more sudden and severe the FUD is the more you should question it.
Where Are We Now?
The growing negative sentiment of the market is clear, and BTC and altcoin cycles seem to be diverging. Today's current peak of ~$7,800 approximately reached last cycle's Wave 1 peak of $7,900. Therefore, is plausible to consider we've reached Disbelief of a new cycle. If so then we can expect further FUD about this 'one-off rally' and a 'big dip' just around the corner. I wouldn't be surprised to see an uptick in old and new rumors about the legality of cryptocurrencies and trading.
I don't advocate blindly ignoring crypto news, but personally I will remain weary. Hope will strike as suddenly as today's rally did but with more intensity.
Just a possibility to be aware of. Also possible Bulls will cause this Wave to end as triangle (hopefully ascending:) instead of Wave C as depicted.
And with that, my outlook continues to grow in optimism.
Comparing the above fractals (if they can be considered that), today’s timeframe is roughly 2/3 of 2014’s. Extrapolating this indicates a considerable pump by mid-December, dump by January, and sideways trading until late Feb or March. In other words, Disbelief could peak (price rises then falls/Bull trap) at end of year and Hope could come by March.
Psychologically, this makes sense. Bears will expect Santa to bring ‘the big drop’ and Bulls will expect ‘the big rally’. Bull’s will eagerly buy-in to the smaller rally and become trapped. Bears will be pleased with smaller drop and continue to call for the big one. This primes the market for whales to truly kick things off in March.
The re-emerging 2013/2014 pattern fueled me to spend hours last night and this morning re-assessing BTCUSD(T). In doing so I’ve decided upon two Bull scenarios, which I won’t re-evaluate for some time.
Based on the main chart of this Idea and reoccurrence of the 2013/2014 pattern (after considering our truncated fifths). We are only now trudging through Depression. Until the year’s end we can expect several small traps. Price will likely remain between $7.9k and $6k. By January we should begin a trek upwards with a peak by March at Disbelief.
Based on BTC chart from a previous Idea (provides below) and assessments of LTCETH and LTCBTC. BTC entered Depression with June’s low and began its trek to Disbelief with October’s price spike. We’ll likely reach Disbelief by the year’s end. Ignoring the timeframe, the below chart roughly depicts this.
I am a significant LTC holder and noticed optimistic LTCETH patterns in Daily and Weekly. Similarly, LTCBTC is likely to increase, though not as significantly as LTCETH’s patterns indicate. This indicates a the potential that BTC is going to take off before ETH, thereby drastically increasing LTCETH.
There are plenty Bear Ideas out there to consider so I’ll keep this limited to my only Bear scenario. As shown in the below chart, my original BTC low target was $4,800. It’s still a possibility, though I am now Bullish on BTC.
Chart should speak for itself. Depicts two upwards trending Support levels. Price currently in green wedge. If price breaks below to the blue Support line then expect to see a ~$6300 low. The blue line still is still an upwards trends.
TP: $6354 - $6275, extreme bottom $6220.3