Looks like the market is about to get squeezed down below the breakout zone. It will probably stop anywhere from $200 to $210 next. We have a large downward channel acting as the top of a descending triangle that will take us to the low 200s. We had a failed H&S that took us to $245 where we were stopped by the lower end of the breakout zone before the big parabolic move.
This is a pretty safe trade with a decent R/R and high probability, although it is not that big. Given that the trend is still down, it is the safest bet right now.
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As far as I can tell, this idea failed because of the weekend. Since moves like this was suggesting are supposed to happen on volume and nobody was trading during the weekend, the idea ran out of time to complete. It's best to stick with trades during the week solely for this reason. Ideas can easily be invalidated when there are not enough people watching to make it happen. When nobody's trading, the price will tend to stay at rest, just like an object at rest will tend to stay at rest. That's physics for ya.
MoonTrader
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I should correct myself. It hasn't technically failed yet, but it is taking longer than expected, meaning the probability of the trade happening is now less certain.
MoonTrader
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UPDATE Jan. 31, 2015:
Good short if you got in. Although there was not enough volume to push it through the first time, the idea was never invalidated.
Vatis
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Well, nothing is safer that waiting for the better opportunity. You can't say that your idea is the safest one ;)
As far as I can tell, this idea failed because of the weekend. Since moves like this was suggesting are supposed to happen on volume and nobody was trading during the weekend, the idea ran out of time to complete. It's best to stick with trades during the week solely for this reason. Ideas can easily be invalidated when there are not enough people watching to make it happen. When nobody's trading, the price will tend to stay at rest, just like an object at rest will tend to stay at rest. That's physics for ya.