BTCUSD Macro Falling Wedge, Symmetrical Triangle and Micro Wedge
Big picture is we are in a falling wedge and were consolidating in a symmetrical triangle and popped out the top which is unusual as these are normally continuation patterns, not reversal patterns. As a continuation pattern they are not that great due to the high rate of throwbacks and pull backs they experience (thepatternsite.com/st.html). Considering the potential of a throwback gets more interesting when you see we are in a rising wedge that looks to terminate at the resistance of our falling wedge.
I mentioned previously that I am bear or square on BTCUSD so I missed this move (I didn't straddle and my leveraged sell stop didn't triggered so I didn't get any losses) and I don't find the risk and reward of going long attractive now. I am looking to short from higher up and I am of the thinking that this is a "suckers rally" until we test the 200w one more time.
Below is a 3 day chart from a previous post from the 2014 falling wedge and if you read the linked post you will see it is almost identical in regards to moving averages to our current wedge. What I want you to notice is once we hit wedge resistance we slipped 30% before hitting the 200w moving average and then we moved out of the wedge with some vigor before again testing the 200w. In other words, we triple bottomed on the 200w and probably shook out a lot of weak hands.
Right now the single scenario I have the most faith in is a move to the wedge resistance and a re-test of the 200w moving average directly after. At the wedge I will be looking for hidden bearish divergence from long term peak to peak and then I will be looking for classic bearish divergence within the top before opening a position. The chart for my post chart I am gunning for about 20% on my short as the price action retest the 200w.
The test on the 200w will not be perfect people buying it too early can stop contact or bears shorting could send us through. Given the thrashing about that can happen around the 200w I don't want to be opening any shorts or longs right against it, that is going to be a no trade zone for me except to take some profit if I get to short the wedge resistance. The period will be extra-ordinarily stressful for margin traders btcusd historically has dipped below the 200w some 5-7% before finding support and that is enough to end up on bitmex rekt or whalecalls (twitter bots that call out liquidations on leveraged trading sites) if you are messing with x25 or x50 leverage. And remember, within the wedge could still break the 200w and go to $1,300, which is where I place the ultimate low.
Given the current bearish divergence in the oscillators I am not looking at going long now as we approach the wedge. Have a look at the 3d chart below, there is no way that we can get to the wedge resistance without it being divergent to the spill at 6,300 or the peak at 8k. We can also see there is a bit of a zone of resistance with the 3d RSI in this bear market, just as there was a zone of support on the RSI in the bull market. I will feel a lot better when the 3d RSI finally clears the previous high in June/July.
I mentioned previously that I am bear or square on BTCUSD so I missed this move (I didn't straddle and my leveraged sell stop didn't triggered so I didn't get any losses) and I don't find the risk and reward of going long attractive now. I am looking to short from higher up and I am of the thinking that this is a "suckers rally" until we test the 200w one more time.
Below is a 3 day chart from a previous post from the 2014 falling wedge and if you read the linked post you will see it is almost identical in regards to moving averages to our current wedge. What I want you to notice is once we hit wedge resistance we slipped 30% before hitting the 200w moving average and then we moved out of the wedge with some vigor before again testing the 200w. In other words, we triple bottomed on the 200w and probably shook out a lot of weak hands.
Right now the single scenario I have the most faith in is a move to the wedge resistance and a re-test of the 200w moving average directly after. At the wedge I will be looking for hidden bearish divergence from long term peak to peak and then I will be looking for classic bearish divergence within the top before opening a position. The chart for my post chart I am gunning for about 20% on my short as the price action retest the 200w.
The test on the 200w will not be perfect people buying it too early can stop contact or bears shorting could send us through. Given the thrashing about that can happen around the 200w I don't want to be opening any shorts or longs right against it, that is going to be a no trade zone for me except to take some profit if I get to short the wedge resistance. The period will be extra-ordinarily stressful for margin traders btcusd historically has dipped below the 200w some 5-7% before finding support and that is enough to end up on bitmex rekt or whalecalls (twitter bots that call out liquidations on leveraged trading sites) if you are messing with x25 or x50 leverage. And remember, within the wedge could still break the 200w and go to $1,300, which is where I place the ultimate low.
Given the current bearish divergence in the oscillators I am not looking at going long now as we approach the wedge. Have a look at the 3d chart below, there is no way that we can get to the wedge resistance without it being divergent to the spill at 6,300 or the peak at 8k. We can also see there is a bit of a zone of resistance with the 3d RSI in this bear market, just as there was a zone of support on the RSI in the bull market. I will feel a lot better when the 3d RSI finally clears the previous high in June/July.
And I promise every Floridian that you will all be rich... because we're gonna print some more money! Why didn't anybody ever think of this before?
~Nathan Explosion
~Nathan Explosion
