Making A Case For The Perma-Bull (Mid-Term Scenario)

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Here’s a little more of a macro view on BTC from the 1D charts. I am prepared for a further drop down into the 5K range (smaller timeframes are currently pointing down). But, I want to make a case for the perma-bull.

Assuming I am a perma-bull and disregarding 2014 analogs, I would believe we bottomed. After Drop 4 (“D4”) BTC consolidated within the range of the lows from D2 and D3 before rallying through and crashing back down to the ATH log trend line (blue line). Although, on this most recent drop, D5, bears failed to push BTC back down through the trend line .

Now, looking at all drops since ATH , BTC has a tendency to retrace 61.8% (Red Fib) (D2 being an exception) on the immediate rally, 38.2% (pink fib) on the second rally and 23.6% (yellow fib) on the third rally.

This brings me to today. For the past 9 days we have ranged in that same consolidation range (albiet slightly higher) mentioned before. This consolidation coupled with a potential MACD crossover and increasing RAI (with plenty of upside potential) makes a strong case for a potential bull-run/rally.

If BTC is able to push throud D5’s 23.6% fib (~$6,550) my mid-term (1D Chart) target will be somewhere between $7,367 (D4 38.2% fib) and $7,670 (D3’s 23.6% fib).

Mid-Term Bear and Un-biased scenarios to follow.
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