I'm watching BTC on 7 different charts from various exchanges and I think I've drawn and redrawn this channel differently at least 2 dozen times on each of them.
I'm leaning bearish both on low and medium time frames *at least*, and I expect us to test high 5ks, even (much) lower if the HTF support breaks. I say this against halving logic, for various reasons, but chiefly because I expect fuckery in traditional markets as well - the DCB seems to have lost strength and the markets seem prime for reversal and downward continuation.
How long can the printer going BRRRRRRrrRrRrRRrrRRRR can distract people from the *burning elephant in the room*?
1) btc bullrun was built upon the stock market bullrun. And this includes all the halvings.
2) Halving has no direct effect on price (its still emotionally driven)
3) we have a hyperwave potential, as btc remains a risk-on asset. read: marketmakers (like Binance) are creating the highs and lows, simulating market activity
ginoludik
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4) the corpse in the closet. Tether printing not being backed by fiat (bitfinex trial is still running)
it is rumoured this event could have more effect on price than halving. And then we are not even talking about the macro black swan going on.
5) major crypto giants have been sued
6) stable coins on the brink of being banned, due to popularity as hedge (something central banks dont really like)
7) Central banks and/or governments are thinking to launch their own stablecoin
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What is our only bullish foundation except halving, safe haven, blockchain adoption thats going with baby steps?
I dont want to sound like a perma bear, just want to remain open minded, as I am a p2p activist, yet we have a long way to go still for DeFi. And we still depend on legacy market to pursue our mission and vision.