What a ride the last few days. If you were patient and ignored all the FOMO, bear traps and naysayers you scooped up some BTC around 6k...well we proved those #HODLers wrong. Thank you shorts. We scooped up positions around 6k levels at record low and we thought we were going to the moon. Buuuttt not so fast.
We all know BTC is hitting extremely tough resistance under the 200MA ( ). The longer BTC is under the 9,050 zone the more the likely market sentiment will turn and we will go lower. I'm not going to get into Fib retracement as I want to focus on the now, however, we know the 200MA, 50 MA, and 20 MA which served as support levels are now resistance levels. Draw a line and you'll see the price levels, but they are around 9000, 10000 and 12000.
First BTC broke below the and is now trading sideways and starting to make lower lows. I have located two support zones and 7 periods to match the chart with the indicators below. If the bears are successful in pushing below these zones 6k-6.5k might be back in play. I don't like to focus so much at what level BTC could drop as no one really knows. Yes I know Fib retracement theory works wonders. I prefer to buy based on what my indicators are telling me. If and confirm the trend and I have an opportunity to buy some coins at heavily oversold levels I'll pull the trigger and add to my core portfolio. I prefer this method so I can stay true to the data and to not act emotionally based on some fixed price in my head.
Here are the facts. 4 hour chart is looking weak! confirms this signal. Also DMI is showing that is below both the and . Not great momentum. As we go shorter in time scale some of the indicators are giving mixed signals, but what concerns me is they were much more even 12 hours ago. Now as I said before BTC is trading sideways so maybe this is just a consolidation period before we begin the next leg up, but that's not what our indicators are telling us. If anything we are looking to go south again absent of anymore positive news besides the recent Senate meetings on crypto regulation.
For long traders there are absolutely no buy setups when looking from the 1 hour to as we trade inside a .
Short term traders might find some opportunities in the next 24 hours if a couple indicators can show some taking place. But for now I don't see any setups thats worth the risk/reward.
Again, we make the trend our friend. The worst thing to do is to try and force the market work within your charts. It's better to be patient, let the market unfold even if we buy at higher levels. Because then at least we know how to handle the bull. Bears are so much more unpredictable. And we don't want to be pigs...because we know pigs get slaughtered!
Good luck and be safe,