Bosphorus_Capital
Short

BTCUSD pullback from 278 very weak. Sell bounces towards 417

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
137 13 5
I had high hopes on the BTCUSD             bounce but unfortunately the upwards move from 278 looks corrective, while the move down from 417 looks impulsive. Obviously this wave up cannot go too far up.

333 should give way before 417 does according to EW theory. Bounces towards 417 should be sold to build positions.

I have two scenarios here according to wave structure. (The horizontal axis is not measured and should not be an indication of time forecast.)

The blue scenario is a drawn out flat correction that lasts another month or two.

The red scenario assumes that the downward impulsive move ( A/(1) ) is not part of a larger correction but is a continuation of the larger trend down.

In either case I think we will see new fresh lows before new fresh highs....
the down looks impulsive because it follows a channel? that's typical of many B-wave
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No, there are 5 subwaves which both also have 5 subwaves each. If you move the upper channel a bit down, it also becomes a nice 1-3, 2-4 channel.
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the_batman Bosphorus_Capital
Ah. If you apply the AO/elliot-wave-macd you might see that your labeling is wrong. The 1 and 2 (at the start of the channel) are in the wrong place: that 1 should be slightly forward (truncated 5) and the 2 was a flat. (if that makes sense)
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the_batman the_batman
which would mean there are 2 impulsive waves, ending at a psuedo-channel characteristic of a B. This new down-ward move is the big ???
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truncation is for cop-outs. show me don't tell me....
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the_batman Bosphorus_Capital
I take it you're not familiar with the 4/34 or 5/34 MACD then..
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dude, between 3 and 5 there is divergence in any and all momentum indicators. in most impulse waves. between 2 and 4 there sometimes is negative divergence again in any and all momentum indicators. i have no idea about the specific space technology momentum indicators that are your favorite but as i said if you have an idea don't tell me show me...
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the_batman Bosphorus_Capital
haha maybe you should familiarize yourself with the space tech. might help your counts. uses this thing called science. "correct in 98% of cases". different from the typical momentum indicator divergences.

You're right though, lemme "show not tell": http://www.amazon.com/New-Trading-Dimensions-Profit-Commodities/dp/0471295418
hope it helps. i know wave counting can be hard.
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the_batman Bosphorus_Capital
not that I know where that'd leave things. here's another piece of info in the mix: an inside guy tells me there's news outa china. they're "banning bitcoin" again ;) (more seriously, they're talking about taxing it or something similar)
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the_batman the_batman
can we get a scenario for that :)
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