As institutional investors have started to get involved in crypto, we have been seeing more and more similarities to the stock markets and as such, we saw our first Wyckoffian patterns February to April in 2021. Followed by a very obvious accumulation pattern.
As we have recently had two distributions to follow, it looks like we might enter another accumulation phase. While I do believe there is a chance we could see a strong V-shaped recovery and continue this bull market, we have to account for the possible play that is at hand.
IF we fail to get over the bull market support band on a weekly timeframe as shown in this chart by a 20w sma and 21w ema, we might enter such an accumulation phase.
What are my price levels based on?
Since 2011, if we held the bull market support band at a certain point, we have never again went below it. As you can see, we did test the Band for 10 days at the end of September.
We have seen previous accumulations and distributions which have formed significant points of support and resistance
If we do get into accumulation, it would be wise to DCA throughout and hold some cash in stablecoins for a possible spring event (orange path). Should there be none, at least you DCA'd through the accumulation. I still believe we will see higher prices by Q1 or Q2 of 2022, as the cycles do seem to lenghten. 69k is unlikely to have been the top.
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We are currently being rejected at the top of the AR, which is typical for a Wyckoff accumulation. Coincidentally, it's also at the 21w ema.
I have hedged a little more of my portfolio by shorting futures in case we continue the accumulation. A breakout would be confirmed if we see BTC break above the 20w sma and 21w ema and close above it for a day or two. In that case, unhedging would be wise as the bullcycle might continue.
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Are we going to see a spring type event? Or will this wyckoff pattern invalidate and we'll trend much, much lower? I personally hope this is the spring coming.
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I think this might not be the spring, but instead a secondary test in Phase B. Time will tell.
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I think we've reached either the spring, or this is a secondary test in phase B.
Agreed the volume was like a spring, still expecting (another) spring to come, another 2 weeks until the break out I guess. But really nice idea, might continue to work out
CryptoHoard
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Interesting. Your level also adds up perfectly with two fibonnacci retracement levels I've had drawn on my chart for over a year, and seems to indeed be playing out. Right now we're on the intersection of the 0.5 fib and .618 fibs on different timeframes. Both very powerful.
DU09
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This is the bullish bias. Lets see if we hold 40k.
UnknownUnicorn1163721
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Nice chart! Play button was like seeing the future.
AlexWasTaken
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24 days later, this is still holding up.
AlexWasTaken
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The current price action seems to make a v-shaped recovery much more likely than a wyckoff accumulation. Feeling hopeful.
AlexWasTaken
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I know this might look scary because a v-shaped recovery is what everyone is currently hoping for. However we cannot disregard the possibility of such an accumulation and I do think it would make sense to DCA into it. When fear is high, it's time to buy.