Bitcoin BTCUSD Decisive Night Ahead
Bitcoin is now approaching the last major dynamic resistance
potential between here and the highs on both Bitfinex and
Coinbase charts - though not on Bitstamp. We've seen it just
under double so far, gaining 5250 points on Bitfinex from the
6000 low. It can go one of two ways from here:
20:13gmt/15:13est Update and Bull Set-Up
First off, was really looking to stay long up to the next line of
fixed resistance at 11438 on Bitfinex today but so far the first
line at 11257 has proved too much with an intra day high at
11250 so the long from 10840 today got closed out for 400 or
so points profit on the first test of the line. Since then there
has been a 200 point gain on another quick long from 10900 to
11100 - around 600 points or so. Now it's getting trickier
again. The hourly candle shows pretty much a spinning top
with pin above as long as it is deep below...indecision,
sideways movement likely now...can move sideways to the big
dynamic and then comes the crunch. It's Bitcoin, boys. It can
always go either way.
So we need to cover both the 2 alternatives...The Bull Break:
Bitcoin finds buyers enough out of far East or when it opens
(or even earlier) to push above the big dynamic and to hold
and not fizzzle out by 2am gmt/21:00est - that would be a
super-bullish outcome and if it comes at any point tonight
must be followed with stops below the dynamic when first
broken line by 100 points or so or alternatively, depending on
price action, can wait for retest from above once broken ...
This break to the upside is a big ask - may well prove too
much on this first attempt. But it's Bitcoin. It's done stranger
things before - it really can go either way from here.
The Second alternative from here: The Bear Break:
We need to keep in mind what could still develop from here -
which is that Coinbase is leading and saying the rally is done
....and now this last few hours is just unspent upward
momentum now running out of steam...if so, the chart will
tell us by Bitcoin not being able to push higher above that last
big line of last dynamic resistance on Coinbase - so this thing
needs watching more carefully than ever for the next few
hours...fairly obviously it needs more buyers now if, as we did
in the chat room, you bought the dip back to 10900ish - the
worry it that it grinds higher slowly and with no real power
behind it as we move towards the far east opening...and then
tops out ...we just need to be very vigilant tonight - and if it
does recoil from the dynamic holding back price on
Coinbase and then it goes on to break the last dynamic
support line on Bitfinex just around 10600 now ...that would
be the signal for swing traders to exit too and also for day
traders to start opening short positions on the next rally back
towards the now broken trend line. It should fall away to 9500
and then if this fails to 8900 - and has the potential to break
much lower still...depends on the shape of the decline - this
is the 'bad ' side of the Bitcoin coin, potentially. May never
happen but forewarned is forearmed. Time as always will tell
us the answer. We follow. To do that we have to see the
upper dynamic broken to move back to full-on bull mode from
here. Until then we need to tread carefully if still long here.
Try not to second guess it too much but be ready to follow the
next big signal coldly either way when it comes.
Bitcoin is now approaching the last major dynamic resistance
potential between here and the highs on both Bitfinex and
Coinbase charts - though not on Bitstamp. We've seen it just
under double so far, gaining 5250 points on Bitfinex from the
6000 low. It can go one of two ways from here:
20:13gmt/15:13est Update and Bull Set-Up
First off, was really looking to stay long up to the next line of
fixed resistance at 11438 on Bitfinex today but so far the first
line at 11257 has proved too much with an intra day high at
11250 so the long from 10840 today got closed out for 400 or
so points profit on the first test of the line. Since then there
has been a 200 point gain on another quick long from 10900 to
11100 - around 600 points or so. Now it's getting trickier
again. The hourly candle shows pretty much a spinning top
with pin above as long as it is deep below...indecision,
sideways movement likely now...can move sideways to the big
dynamic and then comes the crunch. It's Bitcoin, boys. It can
always go either way.
So we need to cover both the 2 alternatives...The Bull Break:
Bitcoin finds buyers enough out of far East or when it opens
(or even earlier) to push above the big dynamic and to hold
and not fizzzle out by 2am gmt/21:00est - that would be a
super-bullish outcome and if it comes at any point tonight
must be followed with stops below the dynamic when first
broken line by 100 points or so or alternatively, depending on
price action, can wait for retest from above once broken ...
This break to the upside is a big ask - may well prove too
much on this first attempt. But it's Bitcoin. It's done stranger
things before - it really can go either way from here.
The Second alternative from here: The Bear Break:
We need to keep in mind what could still develop from here -
which is that Coinbase is leading and saying the rally is done
....and now this last few hours is just unspent upward
momentum now running out of steam...if so, the chart will
tell us by Bitcoin not being able to push higher above that last
big line of last dynamic resistance on Coinbase - so this thing
needs watching more carefully than ever for the next few
hours...fairly obviously it needs more buyers now if, as we did
in the chat room, you bought the dip back to 10900ish - the
worry it that it grinds higher slowly and with no real power
behind it as we move towards the far east opening...and then
tops out ...we just need to be very vigilant tonight - and if it
does recoil from the dynamic holding back price on
Coinbase and then it goes on to break the last dynamic
support line on Bitfinex just around 10600 now ...that would
be the signal for swing traders to exit too and also for day
traders to start opening short positions on the next rally back
towards the now broken trend line. It should fall away to 9500
and then if this fails to 8900 - and has the potential to break
much lower still...depends on the shape of the decline - this
is the 'bad ' side of the Bitcoin coin, potentially. May never
happen but forewarned is forearmed. Time as always will tell
us the answer. We follow. To do that we have to see the
upper dynamic broken to move back to full-on bull mode from
here. Until then we need to tread carefully if still long here.
Try not to second guess it too much but be ready to follow the
next big signal coldly either way when it comes.
Comment:
So far this is looking good still and still a buy dips market - can move boringly sideways to down towards the upper parallel underneath it now - it's hugging the dynamic and is right on it now, line-dancing off the blue support line at 11257 (the breakout level last night) - can come back to the upper parallel again a few times and move sideways some...bulls are hoping it will do this and eventually move sideways out from under the big dynamic resistance line which is just above it again now- then it should begin to rally well again - and if wrong here and that dynamic continues to hold back price all day only then do we have a potential problem developing from here -
Comment:
Bitcoin Bitfinex Update 14:48est
That bot at 11700 is working overtime. Eventually it should be overwhelmed but it can gind away sideways for a while yet - this chart is saying 12210 is next significant resistance but Bitstamp has this last dynamic to beat at 11867 and there is minor resistance here on Bitfinex at 11906 where the next bot lies in wait no doubt. But the trend is still positive and we can stay long. Asmall dynamic is emerging underneath the lows of the day on the 1 hour chart - can move sideways to downa little but should hold up off the dynamic as it does so. Overall positive though whilst above this support line though. (For fastest updates please see top left of sumastardon page)
Bitfinex Chart Update
Coinbase Chart Update
Bitstamp Chart Update
That bot at 11700 is working overtime. Eventually it should be overwhelmed but it can gind away sideways for a while yet - this chart is saying 12210 is next significant resistance but Bitstamp has this last dynamic to beat at 11867 and there is minor resistance here on Bitfinex at 11906 where the next bot lies in wait no doubt. But the trend is still positive and we can stay long. Asmall dynamic is emerging underneath the lows of the day on the 1 hour chart - can move sideways to downa little but should hold up off the dynamic as it does so. Overall positive though whilst above this support line though. (For fastest updates please see top left of sumastardon page)
Bitfinex Chart Update
Bitcoin was at a critical point at midnight gmt/19:00est - deciding whether to break higher or to fall away again into the hands of the bears. It was not an easy call and really looked as if it could go either way form here, so we had to set-up for both eventualities. And once more Bitcoin took the high road, confounding the bears and surging higher with the first candle of the new day (gmt) - we waited and followed the break above 11260 higher - since then Bitcoin has rallied to a high 6 hours later at 11660 just below the line of fixed resistance at 11680. Then Europe opens for business between 6 and 7 am gmt and Bitcoin gets sold off again - back to the start point and now getting ready to rally once more. The spike left at the high of the day as Europe woke up was telling us that a near term top was forming and since then it's fallen away to retest the bigger rising dynamic and bounced well with a big spike forming under price now. After last night's big break it's still a buy dips market. If still long can stay that way and if not look to buy this dip - support at 11134 off the dynamic should continue to hold and Bitcoin still has more upside left in it. The minimum RHS target is 12200 - and so far, after last night's price action there is no reason to doubt that it will be met sooner rather than later