Bear markets usually last less than bull markets. Only shitcoin bear markets last more because Traditional assets don't usually do 100-5000x is 1-24months. This bear market for Bitcoin isn't the same as the one in 2014. In 2012-2013 Bitcoin did a 500x run in less time than it did a 100x this time, without the help of forks and shitcoins, while the data were cooked. We still don't know the effect that the Willy bot had or how bad the lie that Mt. Gox had an extra 600-650K BTC than it did have on the market.
Back then there weren't many exchanges, Mt. Gox had collapsed, shitcoins were primarily clear scummy pump and dumps and not as many existed (as today) to provide liquidity. Bitcoin infrastructure today is 10x better than what it was 4 years ago. Bitcoin is well known to the world, especially to the financial world. Right now Bitfinex and Tether have about 15-25% of the share of the volume, but this doesn't mean they hold 15-25% of all the fiat waiting to buy BTC.
Inflation was a lot higher and the mining infrastructure was also nowhere near the one we have today (back then companies kept collapsing whereas now more and more are joining the space and competition is rampant. We see companies in the space get insane valuations, like Coinbase and Bitmain even after such a big drop (which aren't even that big anymore given how their competition is doing).
The altcoin market looks like it has really bottomed. Forming a perfect H&S pattern, Altcoin marketcap looks identical to the cheet sheet after falling 86% (with most alts falling 90-99%). Even in 2014 the Altcoin market cap dropped 84% (less than this time) Why does that matter? Bitcoin and alts are intertwined. Bitcoin is the one leading the dance but they have a symbiotic relationship. If Bitcoin does well, alts do well and the other way around. ALTBTC charts looking hot!
Look at all the important upcoming events. Major BTC fundamental events coming In the the next few months. - Bakkt (November) - Possible ETF (Q1/Q2 2019) - ErisX (Q1/Q2 2019) - Coinbase x Blackrock - Nasdaq (November) - Citi Group DAR h/t @XCBitcoin. What about all the upcoming ETF decisions? I doubt the SEC insiders wouldn't buy before approving and I doubt they won't approve one in Feb 2019. What about the people that are filling for these ETFs? Are they not bullish? By the way Mt.Gox selling has slowed down and they will give people their coins in February (bullish)
Don't forget that Bitcoin is also a commodity that is being used by people, for buying illegal stuff, money laundering, gambling (casinos etc), speculation (1Broker/Bitmex), escaping capital controls (i.e China, Russia), securing assets, transacting privately, money transfers, currency conversions etc.
Some examples: Converting 'cheap' energy into 'hard money' (Venezuela, Iran), Store of Value (South Africa, India, Venezuela, Argentina, Turkey), Payment method for people who are unbanked (wikileaks, political activists, bankrupt, homeless) or those who need privacy (buying a VPN subscription). Think of the energy burned that secures Bitcoin. We really are talking about 10M USD per day. Mining is more decentralized than it has ever been and I can't even think of the price going to pre segwit levels (that was the most bullish development and victory for Bitcoin).
There are a lot of huge transactions that we aren't aware of. There are multiple OTC desks and I doubt they have no customers (Circle alone claims to have done 2B in volume since it started its desk). When people form a relationship with their dealer, they stop using a 3rd parties like Localbitcoins etc, so we need to still keep an eye on on-chain transaction volume to, not just exchanges. And remember, many people can't sell for privacy reasons. Most people didn't even move to sell their fork coins.
We have Crypto companies stepping up their game in all sorts of ways. Think of all the improvements in custodial solutions, insurance etc. Bitmex's insurance fund has 13.5k BTC. Gemini will have part of the user funds insured. Other exchanges either have or plan to create insurance funds. BitGo was given a license to be an approved custodian. Coinbase registered users keep rising. Cash App and Robinhood have shown extreme progress by adding Bitcoin as an option. Sure a strong move down would be ideal to make the final transfer from weak to strong hands. But it is very hard for me to be bearish based on all of that. Bittrex added USD to their platform, Circle aquired Poloniex (started listing new coins and created a stablecoin), Gemini started adding coins and created its own stablecoin, Coinbase has started adding new coins and has created a bitcoin and shitcoin bundle.
Also more shitcoins are better for Bitcoin, as more people have to buy bitcoin to go buy them. Every bitcoin sitting on an orderbook waiting for a shitcoin dip is a bitcoin used for speculation. Shitcoins provide liquidity through utility. Speculation is a utility and we see it with Bitmex as well. The volume skyrocketted over the last few months, and that's why they have competitors stepping up their game right now (i.e Deribit, Cryptofacilities and OKex). And to be fair to other exchanges: Huobi, Okex and Binance are steadily expanding everywhere. They are making a f*ck ton of money in fees. Do you think they sell all their crypto? They are bribing regulators, creating funds and affiliate companies all day long. The ecosystem is rapidly growing both in the financial and technological sense.
Don't forget that thanks to all the forks, many Bitcoin hodlers got a nice 15% extra for holding Bitcoin (taking an average of their price and sell volume based on how many coins have moved). 5k to 5.8k is ~15%. People that wanted more Bitcoin got more Bitcoin. All this fight at 6.3k shows the exact same thing as the forks. Transition from weak hands to strong hands.
People are slowly waking up all over the world. Many paying huge premiums to get their hands onto some Bitcoin, while people in the West can buy it instantly with low fees, with whatever method they want. Some even get a premium for selling Bitcoin. Think of all the people that slowly learn about Bitcoin, think of all the people evangelizing it and all the people that are slowly putting all their money and wages into Bitcoin. Paycheck to paycheck.
Finally go look at charts that aren't just BTCUSD charts. You will definitely see how they are all more bullish and Bitcoin could go 8-14% down from here and still be fine. XBTEUR, BTCJPY, BTCKRW, BTCBRL, BTCMXN, BTCTHB, BTCUSD3M, GBTC are some charts you should definitely look at. Also look at all the Bitmex altcoin futures which clearly had their final capitulation, as well as the December futures.
And finally stocks have already pumped, Bonds are in a bubble, Interest rates are near ATLs and Gold isn't really shinning any more. These people need a new toy. Something they can pump to make them a lot of money. What if there was a 24/7/365, global, easy to access, p2p market. What if...
That's all folks. Good luck shorting the yearly lows again!
Back then there weren't many exchanges, Mt. Gox had collapsed, shitcoins were primarily clear scummy pump and dumps and not as many existed (as today) to provide liquidity. Bitcoin infrastructure today is 10x better than what it was 4 years ago. Bitcoin is well known to the world, especially to the financial world. Right now Bitfinex and Tether have about 15-25% of the share of the volume, but this doesn't mean they hold 15-25% of all the fiat waiting to buy BTC.
Inflation was a lot higher and the mining infrastructure was also nowhere near the one we have today (back then companies kept collapsing whereas now more and more are joining the space and competition is rampant. We see companies in the space get insane valuations, like Coinbase and Bitmain even after such a big drop (which aren't even that big anymore given how their competition is doing).
The altcoin market looks like it has really bottomed. Forming a perfect H&S pattern, Altcoin marketcap looks identical to the cheet sheet after falling 86% (with most alts falling 90-99%). Even in 2014 the Altcoin market cap dropped 84% (less than this time) Why does that matter? Bitcoin and alts are intertwined. Bitcoin is the one leading the dance but they have a symbiotic relationship. If Bitcoin does well, alts do well and the other way around. ALTBTC charts looking hot!
Look at all the important upcoming events. Major BTC fundamental events coming In the the next few months. - Bakkt (November) - Possible ETF (Q1/Q2 2019) - ErisX (Q1/Q2 2019) - Coinbase x Blackrock - Nasdaq (November) - Citi Group DAR h/t @XCBitcoin. What about all the upcoming ETF decisions? I doubt the SEC insiders wouldn't buy before approving and I doubt they won't approve one in Feb 2019. What about the people that are filling for these ETFs? Are they not bullish? By the way Mt.Gox selling has slowed down and they will give people their coins in February (bullish)
Don't forget that Bitcoin is also a commodity that is being used by people, for buying illegal stuff, money laundering, gambling (casinos etc), speculation (1Broker/Bitmex), escaping capital controls (i.e China, Russia), securing assets, transacting privately, money transfers, currency conversions etc.
Some examples: Converting 'cheap' energy into 'hard money' (Venezuela, Iran), Store of Value (South Africa, India, Venezuela, Argentina, Turkey), Payment method for people who are unbanked (wikileaks, political activists, bankrupt, homeless) or those who need privacy (buying a VPN subscription). Think of the energy burned that secures Bitcoin. We really are talking about 10M USD per day. Mining is more decentralized than it has ever been and I can't even think of the price going to pre segwit levels (that was the most bullish development and victory for Bitcoin).
There are a lot of huge transactions that we aren't aware of. There are multiple OTC desks and I doubt they have no customers (Circle alone claims to have done 2B in volume since it started its desk). When people form a relationship with their dealer, they stop using a 3rd parties like Localbitcoins etc, so we need to still keep an eye on on-chain transaction volume to, not just exchanges. And remember, many people can't sell for privacy reasons. Most people didn't even move to sell their fork coins.
We have Crypto companies stepping up their game in all sorts of ways. Think of all the improvements in custodial solutions, insurance etc. Bitmex's insurance fund has 13.5k BTC. Gemini will have part of the user funds insured. Other exchanges either have or plan to create insurance funds. BitGo was given a license to be an approved custodian. Coinbase registered users keep rising. Cash App and Robinhood have shown extreme progress by adding Bitcoin as an option. Sure a strong move down would be ideal to make the final transfer from weak to strong hands. But it is very hard for me to be bearish based on all of that. Bittrex added USD to their platform, Circle aquired Poloniex (started listing new coins and created a stablecoin), Gemini started adding coins and created its own stablecoin, Coinbase has started adding new coins and has created a bitcoin and shitcoin bundle.
Also more shitcoins are better for Bitcoin, as more people have to buy bitcoin to go buy them. Every bitcoin sitting on an orderbook waiting for a shitcoin dip is a bitcoin used for speculation. Shitcoins provide liquidity through utility. Speculation is a utility and we see it with Bitmex as well. The volume skyrocketted over the last few months, and that's why they have competitors stepping up their game right now (i.e Deribit, Cryptofacilities and OKex). And to be fair to other exchanges: Huobi, Okex and Binance are steadily expanding everywhere. They are making a f*ck ton of money in fees. Do you think they sell all their crypto? They are bribing regulators, creating funds and affiliate companies all day long. The ecosystem is rapidly growing both in the financial and technological sense.
Don't forget that thanks to all the forks, many Bitcoin hodlers got a nice 15% extra for holding Bitcoin (taking an average of their price and sell volume based on how many coins have moved). 5k to 5.8k is ~15%. People that wanted more Bitcoin got more Bitcoin. All this fight at 6.3k shows the exact same thing as the forks. Transition from weak hands to strong hands.
People are slowly waking up all over the world. Many paying huge premiums to get their hands onto some Bitcoin, while people in the West can buy it instantly with low fees, with whatever method they want. Some even get a premium for selling Bitcoin. Think of all the people that slowly learn about Bitcoin, think of all the people evangelizing it and all the people that are slowly putting all their money and wages into Bitcoin. Paycheck to paycheck.
Finally go look at charts that aren't just BTCUSD charts. You will definitely see how they are all more bullish and Bitcoin could go 8-14% down from here and still be fine. XBTEUR, BTCJPY, BTCKRW, BTCBRL, BTCMXN, BTCTHB, BTCUSD3M, GBTC are some charts you should definitely look at. Also look at all the Bitmex altcoin futures which clearly had their final capitulation, as well as the December futures.
And finally stocks have already pumped, Bonds are in a bubble, Interest rates are near ATLs and Gold isn't really shinning any more. These people need a new toy. Something they can pump to make them a lot of money. What if there was a 24/7/365, global, easy to access, p2p market. What if...
That's all folks. Good luck shorting the yearly lows again!