End of a wyckoff distribution phase confirmed with the markdown beginning with its descent from 59k since May.
If there was a double bottom built here in the current context range, I'd mark this as a start of an invalidation of the trend break and continue its ascent up. The range buildup here is now a dangerous signal and building a bearish flag .
I never feel sure especially with BTC so I'll be staying out of it by holding 50% cash.
If the bearish flag is valid, pole height estimates price movement down towards 20k, which conveniently meets . 786 retracement which is where my next buy and hodl zone will be.
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Strange wick - Strong bullish support. Chart requires updating to anticipate for scenario that this is a retracement activity in the larger bullish trend.
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If bottom is reached, possible short term bullish scenario for a price target in the red box where downtrend line meets the local 1.618 extension as well as the 61.8 retracement.
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If bottom is not reached, possible scenario: Move down to next support at 20k. Box range. RSI falls into oversold region and parabolic move up to retest the major downtrend.
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Interesting observations: Confidence that we are invalidating this bearish flag and reversing back to the upside is now higher (re-entered position yesterday near the lows).