Just an update. Regardless of the upswings we are still in a bearish mid term trend pattern in my opinion. Every bear market has bullish trends, and every bull market bearish. Understanding the difference is key to understanding how the market moves. I do not see anything on the chart that changes my mind at this time. I noted yesterday that I took some of my short position (which was only a partial position to begin with) off the table anticipating this movement. I may sell and add to that sell at sometime in the near future. So to answer the question are we still bearish on the market? YES in my opinion. But that is the mid term cycle only. In a longer cycle, as my buddy @SEAN_VENGAN has pointed out in his article yesterday, we are very much still in a long term bullish market. The key is understanding what time cycle we are in. If you haven't read his article on BTC you should, very informative, great analyst, and will save me from posting the same, as I am in total agreement with his post! It's spot on as most of his posts are. If you want the TRUTH, add him to your list of people to follow, if you CAN'T HANDLE THE TRUTH, well there are many out there that will tell you what you want to hear, instead of what you should be listening to.
But while we are waiting for the market to settle and consolidate, in order to attract new fish to the pond, we get these mini bull patterns followed by mini bear patterns, and the big fish are swimming everywhere eating the small fish that are confused by this movement. The fact we are continuing to have these impulse swings, on low volume, and an RSI that cannot seem to break 80 leads me to believe there will be more volatility going into the final sell off where the fish realize their fate, and become eaten. Yes the big fish will be full, the smart fish will still be alive, and calmness will come upon the waters in the form of a nice bottom consolidation (allegedly). It doesn't happen overnight, or in days maybe not weeks, but it will happen. So if your not a big fish in the pond, then keep to shallow waters until things settle down. I see many are trading this bear market, and that is ok if YOU know what your doing, but we must keep our heads on tight, not get greedy, and realize "large fortunes are made by piling on many small gains". Bulls make money Bears make money PIGS GET SLAUGHTERED! It's the bottom of the 8th, we need base hits right now to wear down the pitcher, not home runs!
I want to clarify WE CAN turn around right here and go higher. WE CAN go to $4600 and turn around and drop to $2200. Anything is possible this is why we must constantly monitor our charts looking at trend patterns. Personally I just do not see it as a likely probability, looking at the current chart, that we are headed to $6,000 just quite yet, the tide, the temperature, the sun angle, are just not telling us this is the time we want to go bull!
Thanks and have a blessed Trading Day!
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Beautiful consolidation pattern forming
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IF YOU HAVE NOT READ ON HOW TO TRADE BREAKOUTS OF TREND CHANNELS TRIANGLES ETC I RECOMMEND YOU READ MORE, AND TEST IT WITH A MINUTE AMOUNT OF MONEY BEFORE YOU LOSE YOUR BUTT!
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Ok there seems to be some confusion. We are trading a bear market and I should have been clearer on that as some are just reading and thinking we are calling to only buy the breakout. NO we are looking to sell the breakout. If you were ypbat 1am and I of course was sleeping you could have made a few bucks in the breakout but you can't get greedy! Remember PIGS GET SLAUGHTERED !
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Apologize if my grammar is bad I'm on the road today dat finger texting :)
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Breakout does NOT indicate direction. I know I'll get the ohh predicting up or down comment from someone. Which bus why this trade works so well! Either way!
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Testing the upper right longer term trend line, let's see what happens there!
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Keep in mind we have stated throughout that $4400-$4600 is a possibility and the pattern are still valid. One day does not make a bull market and you must keep this in mind. If your long term it doesn't matter, if your short you should be monitoring continuously so you know when you should cover. A breakthrough of $4600 would change my mind as we must all adapt to the market and not have the assumption it follows are graphs to a tee.
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OHHHH THE PANIC HAS SET IN!!! Let's take a look at the long term trend. still looks bearish to me. But trade what your signals are telling you, as in the end your accountable for your own money!
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I noticed the most important pattern in trading just popped up!
looking back at a similar breakout that happened on 3rd of july when it broke the resistance line of a 20 day downtrend. Within 7 days it came back for a much deeper drop (another 30% or so from the correction day). Will wait and see.
goldbug1
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@kayb100, BINGO! great take, calmness, no fear, rational decision making. all the qualities of a good trader!
veltto_keksi
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@kayb100, Thank you for pointing that out. I guess it wouldn't be a bad practice to draw trendlines on past periods, what the indicators were telling at the time, and seeing how it actually went down.
payam_prz
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This is the most confusing situation I have seen in a year or so. I'm sure BTC will eventually catch the uptrend and finds its way to 8k by EoY, but I can't understand the underlying reasons of recent swings. All evidence tells me it should correct itself to ~3200 , and I really like the logic behind the words of great analysts like @goldbug1 and @putdejudom and @EXCAVO . On the other hand, some who I also admire their work are talking opposite way (e.g. @SEAN_VENGAN , @DianKemala and @Supernova_elite ).
I'm going with team A (South is the way to go)
maxm9196
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Looks like we are in the B stage of the 8-point Elliot wave. I was able to trade A to B now I am reversing my position and shorting B-C. It's funny how bitcoin is almost the perfect example of the elliott wave theory isnt it. Great charts and insight. Always look forward to reading your posts. Thank you.
finsIe
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bitcoin 4k.. shitting my pants.. any advice?
gson
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@samirabdulsalam, buy
goldbug1
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@samirabdulsalam, Ohhh Lordy the sharks are circling!
finsIe
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@goldbug1, Im still cashed out, still holding on. Not going to bite just yet.
Shoku
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Using coinbase to chart BTC is awful lol. A more reliable exchange for BTC/USD is bitfinex since it holds the highest volume.