I am learning bearish after we broke up-trends but we could certainly see much more volitility in either direction around the fork.
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Daily view
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hedge aborted... on a ride to the moon.
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Currently no position waiting for a break in either direction.
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Some advice to my followers.
If you are long, keep your stops tight, this debarcle is far from over and certain individuals stll have a lot of their coins to dump.
logically.. If you were dumping all of your coins, you wouldnt do it all in one go, you would wait for the order book to fill back up which is what i suspect is happening.
thx. i agree. two different charts. nearly same result ... just for info. maybe helpful.
DamonAndTheSea
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Great analysis. I agree that it's likely we'll bounce higher as this run has been very bullish, and so 6.5k wouldn't surprise me (the 0.5 fib retracement). It might sound a bit unlikely, but I'm still holding out the possibility for a bounce off of $6800 (0.382) and an extended bull run to $8200 which would get us to the 1.618 projection that many have commented on in weeks prior. What do you think?
filbfilb
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@DamonAndTheSea, thanks for the comments, I agree the 8.2~4K were my initial top range and have said to expect a shake out prefork so it does add up. It’s difficult to say; the daily looks finished to me but the weekly, maybe another week up.. hard to know. Strangely I feel more comfortable knowing targets going down rather than up right now.
DamonAndTheSea
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@filbfilb, Agree... short term trend is definitely down, but still early enough to consider these kinds of head fakes. We'll know more in 48 hours as I don't expect this down channel to last much longer before we find a bottom and then bounce. The way this is looking, I think your analysis above is a very likely outcome.. but I'll be watching the bounce level and using it to inform the duration for which I hold my long position.
Also I get the feeling... I'm much more at ease when I have a sense of the general direction, so that I can flow with the market... the sudden pivots are anxiety inducing.
TereMius
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@filbfilb, well we had 8k (7899 finex, 7950 stamp) good call :)
ruraldisturbance
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Phil says to 5k! I tend to agree.
filbfilb
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@ruraldisturbance, 5 k then up to 10 would make it a perfect end to the year!
ruraldisturbance
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@filbfilb, It would be amazing! Hahaha. Its so unbelievable, but we know Bitcoin can do it! Hahaha.
Chusogoles
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Hi, I don´t understand any fibonacci, can you tell me which are your reference points to get the levels? Thanks