Just one man's somewhat educated opinion and that education level and quality can be debated.
We have the volume we need to see for it to be a bottom. We tapped the low end of that order block.
I don't now if its a never look back bottom. Sure, it could be.
But I see the makings of a bounce here.
Trade active
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And there we go. 20% is a good take for a couple of days. Can't bring myself to call it over. But, taking a piece off makes it a risk free trade.
*Note: Paper gains can be real gains if the trade is closed, thus a 'risk free trade' is not really risk free. You are risking your paper gains which could be realized. Always keep in mind that there is a R:R not just before you take a trade, but also while a trade is in progress.*
If you think about it in terms of adding to your position this is clear: As you approach your target, your risk becomes greater and greater and your reward less and less if you were to add at a given point in the trajectory. As you approach your stop, you risk becomes less and less and your reward becomes greater and greater.
I am not suggesting that you consistently add to losing positions or cutting trades early, but sometimes it makes a lot of sense depending on how you've structured the trade (i.e. went in light with first entry and it moves to toward the stop. Adding can make sense if there are additional signals coming in that indicate its going to work and you were just early.)
I always say, everything works. It just might not always work for you.
Hope you made some money. If not, there's always the next one.
I think this is only the beginning, and we're heading to at least 10k
kurtsmock
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@DannyBaker, That's fair. Time horizon is everything. I think bounce, but too early to tell if it could be reversal.
DannyBaker
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@kurtsmock, yeah i'm thinking a month to get to 10k
DannyBaker
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@DannyBaker, Looks like you where right about the short term bounce
kurtsmock
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@DannyBaker, Gotta take what you can get =) We'll see if it gets any legs
rainbow_trader
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Nice remark. After this bounce (33k -35k), the structure of the market indicates reaching 10.1k until January 15, 2023. What do you think?
kurtsmock
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@rainbow_trader, I agree with you 100% both on target for bounce and worst-case downside target. Slight differences are that I do not expect it to actually get that low and It is possible that the low is in and that's final. I don't expect this low to be the bottom though.
My best guess based on what I know from my short 4 years trading bitcoin is that it will probably make another low and it will probably take a lot lot lot longer than anyone wants it to take to get there. When that new lower low happens, the drop will be very quick (days long at the very very most). Once that low is in, I'd figure that is the dead bottom low. But, I think the lowest it can get is 12k. 12k is a steal of a deal for a bitcoin so, there will be buyers there.
Not to ramble on but its ultimately a question of long leverage and orderbook thickness. Wherever the greatest amount of resting liquidity is is very near the bottom. The market is much more regulated now and there are better IC in place, so I doubt we'll get a liquidation cascade event like we did in 2020. Bitmex's power over the market is now greatly diminished. So, assuming no massive liquidation event, the resting liquidity will point to the final bottom.
If I were to speculate on the safest way to get in Bitcoin for the next bull run so that you don't miss it and you don't pay too much I would say: deposit your money. Take no leverage. Put your limit orders in the market from here the whole way down to 10k. Know how much you stand to lose if it keeps dropping beyond that. Come back in 5 years to check on it.