In this analysis I want to take a look at Bitcoin's historical behaviour at the moment that it made new all-time highs (ATH's), and make a prediction based on those findings.
As seen on the bottom two charts, Bitcoin has ALWAYS reversed substantially from the previous ATH's area of resistance (note: the area around the ATH functions as resistance, not the exact value). 2017: ~33% correction. 2020: ~17% correction.
This time it remains to be seen how much we will reverse. Seeing that corrections (and pumps) become less extreme with time, it's likely that it will be less than 17%.
In my view, the most likely scenario would be a reversal towards the first yellow area of support (1), which would be around 11% decline from 69k. The worst-case temporary reversal would be a fall towards the second area of support (2), around 25% decline.
In the long-term I'm still bullish. However, we have to acknowledge that historical price action is against the bulls. On the other hand, this might be the last time we can buy BTC for these price for the next 1-2 years.
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Sell-off has started after making a new all-time high. We can see a 10-15 percent rejection from here. Might be the last time to buy cheap alts!
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We dropped 14%, this could very well be the bottom before the definitive break out.
The identification of potential support areas (1 and 2) adds clarity to your analysis.
vseasalt
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Good look at the past to consider the present. I think that we will have some mix of pullback and sideways action for a bit before pushing up again into the halving. The bullish mix of ETF, halving and worldwide acceptance is quite strong at the moment. However, as ever, we will see. A pullback is possible, especially considering the more conservative approach of institutional investors which are now pouring in.