Before everything, I have to mention that we are into a bull run and it's not ended yet ! So every short scenario is risky; We are trying to analyze BTC by validated charts only.. 🙋🏼♂️ We will be honored to being supported by your comments and likes, If you enjoyed our exclusive analysis.
Bitcoin's price tumbled below a key support level, but financial experts agree that the correction clears the way for further upside. And now it's reaching MA100, which can be really critical for BTC's direction ! Also MACD is reaching all time low on daily TF ( ATL is located at -1450 and current level is -1350; So minor pullback is confirmed just by this stiff support )
There are 6 factors that made BTC kinda bearish in our sight : 1️⃣ Important Pivot dates and Stronger entry dates for movement and Possible double bottom formation 2️⃣ FIBBO 50% level is located at 40550$ 3️⃣ There is a little GAP below 45K 4️⃣ Bearish crossover on MACD on weekly timeframe 5️⃣ PI-Cycle bearish signal and Max Keiser's prediction for BTC's price at the end of 2021 6️⃣ 32% correction based on movement repetition
🔴 All of this factors are based on technical analyzes; So any major fundamental can invalidate it easily !
1️⃣ Important Pivot dates and Stronger entry dates for movement and Possible double bottom formation : There are critical dates which we are going to discuss about them; 27th-30th April | on 27th April 2020, BTC had a candle closes above MA100 which was confirmed upward movement for a year ! Now it's right on last date and MA100 has reached movement again; Technically it will reject movement to lower moving averages; But There is a opportunity for whales to defend the price ! However I don't think bear let this happen; Cause 76% of positions are short now and We are currently on fear zone... But there wasn't any panic sell, Which should be happen after a fake-out above near bearish trendline. 📌 As we are into a bull market and recently $2.37 Billion USDT deposited on exchanges; So it could be reversal point for BTC !
2️⃣ FIBBO 50% level is located at 40550$ : Based on daily overview; There are three major FIBBO's level. FIBBO 38.2% level is located at 46500$ which is acted as minor support for FIBBO's retracement in past. FIBBO 50% level is located at 40550$ which is acted as major support for FIBBO's retracement in past. FIBBO 61.8% level is located at 34800$ which is acted as stiff support for FIBBO's retracement in past. Now 38.2% level is also critical for bulls; They can lead the movement and gain power one more time ! If they failed to hold it, Then Bears will catch the movement and lead BTC's price to 50% level.
3️⃣ There is a little GAP below 45K : There are two important GAPs that market makers want to Fill it as soon as possible. There is a GAP above current level which is located at 52K. There is a GAP below current level which is located at 45K. Most possible scenario is that bears let the upper GAP being filled so then They will makes more long positions to flee. How ever on last time's rejection they decide to reject upper GAP... 📌 Have to mention that Mentioned GAPs are already being filled by candle's shadows but I consider them to being filled by candle's body !
4️⃣ Bearish crossover on MACD on weekly timeframe : On weekly timeframe MACD is being bearish, So next days will selects the major direction for BTC in short-term. EMA20 is located $45,000. It's weak but with EMA20; It could holds price for a day or more ! Also it can be reversal point for bulls; So it's really important for both side to look for it.. If BTC rejects EMA 20, Then it will targeting lower support around 38K.
5️⃣ PI-Cycle bearish signal and Max Keiser's prediction for BTC's price at the end of 2021 : On my last BTC's exclusive analysis; Many traders rejects PI Cycle's validation and I'm really respects their opinion ! But I just trying to calculate some repetitions Based on PI Cycle 3D chart; There is a possible correlation between current bull run and 2013's bull run. Which is confirm Max Keiser's prediction for BTC's price at the end of 2021... On first PI Cycle's bearish cross, BTC had almost 70% correction which is unacceptable for current situation on Crypto market. There are 21.6 million counted traders which are following BTC's price ! Also Experts predicts that there will be19 million more new comers by late 2021. But on BTC's accumulation phase; It's been confirmed by Macro Overview knowledge. If I want to make a scenario based on PI Cycle's chart; It is expected that market turns into sideway mode for next 6 months in range 40-60k. Continuation of Bull Run will starts from Sep or Oct => 300k by the end of 2021. Bear market might start at some point in 2022. This Scenario will be more realistic by Max Keiser's prediction ! At the end of the year, BTC was worth 29k, so Max came pretty close. For 2021, Keiser's predictions are more willful; Keiser predicted that by the end of the year, the price of Bitcoin will be around $220,000.
6️⃣ 32% correction based on movement repetition : On 4H TF there is possible rejection for BTC to 44K level. Which is not being confirmed by a support or supply zone; So 43K will be the nearest acceptable level for BTC to touch ! Based on above chart; BTC is moving into a falling wedge ( Not valid enough ). This falling wedge can carry the price for higher levels if it's being broken by BTC.. Which is didn't happen till now ! So continuation to 43K level is more acceptable in first view.
📚 There are two major pivot points at 1st May and 14th May. I think that 1st May will act as a stronger point for bears.. And 14th May will change the direction !
🔺 There are few factors that can invalidate our direction : - Being supported by bulls and breaks higher trendlines at 56K level. - MACD rejects to being bearish in next days on weekly chart. - MACD being supported by ATL and cause a breakout above MA 50. - MA 100 Pushes back the price and don't let it to retest 43K level. - FIBBO 38.2% Act as a stiff support for BTC and bulls try lead the price to break higher resistances.
🔴 Note that this factors can being rejected by market makers ! You won't miss market opportunities in long-term; But you will get 0 with a liquidation event in futures... So manage your risks and remove emotions out of your body.
❗ Whales need to cause a liquidation crisis to take the currencies from weak hands ! Which is expected to happen in last minor dips but there wasn't any panic sell in huge scales.. That's why I'm thinking about another minor dips ! How ever last major pull backs during the last bull runs was; $780 -> $468 (-40%) $1,115 -> $750 (-32%) $1,350 -> $900 (-33%) $3,000 -> $1,800 (-40%) $4,950 -> $3,000 (-39%) $7,800 -> $5,500 (-29%) 🔰 There are all about 30% or more and current correction is below 27%.. With 43K's retest it will increases to 34% and it's more healthy for major pullback !!
Hope our overview was good enough to take your time on our article. Be happy and Trade safe 😉 As I mentioned before you can support us with your comments and likes ! I'll be waiting for your personal view on current situation 😃🙋🏼♂️
Attention: this isn't financial advice we are just trying to help people on their own vision.
Just a low TF overview ! Good luck with your trades 🙋🏻♂️ If you have any question; Feel free to ask...
I'm so tired but I will manage to answer everyone's question as soon as I can. Please be patience 🙇🏻♂️ Have a great night ✨
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If BTC fails to clear the $53,200 and $53,500 resistance levels, it could start a downside correction. An immediate support on the downside is near the $51,500 level. The first key support is near the $51,000 level and the MA100. A fresh close below the MA100 is likely to open the doors for a drop towards the $48,500 support.
📝Technical indicators: Hourly MACD is slowly gaining strength in the bullish zone. Hourly RSI is now well above the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $51,500, followed by $51,000. Major Resistance Levels – $53,200, $53,500 and $55,000.
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This is my vision for now.. I may change it when it's needed ! SL : Any 4H close below 50456$
I will think about our minor dive to FIBBO 50% at 59K level again !
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New BTC's analyzes is out ! Also you find out about ETH's direction. Next month will be great for Alts.. Don't miss it !
I think this is really excellent analysis and covers multiple viewpoints. I feel inclined to agree with you that we will range somewhere between 40k and 60k for some time. March was a good preview of what the next few months may be like. My only comment is on this: "Whales need to cause a liquidation crisis to take the currencies from weak hands ! Which is expected to happen in last minor dips but there wasn't any panic sell in huge scales.."
I think there was a very healthy liquidation after the flash dump last weekend. That liquidated billions in assets in just an hour. And now the fear greed index is very fearful.
But also I think whales already absorbed a lot of retail investment through March and also after that dump. If you look at Coinbase OTC there were as many new whale accounts made (over 8,000 Bitcoin purchases) in the past ~7 weeks as we saw in the 3 years previous. It makes me feel like that is a confirmation that we are close to the floor on this particular pattern. I don't see us falling below 40k without a very significant effort since we know most of industry is buying in between 48 and 60k this past 7 weeks.. and while I can't see their analysis that they used to decide to purchase, they surely have better experts than you and me. But that is only my speculation, I have no way to prove it.
Helical_Trades
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@misterbumble, 1st at all; Respects your overview on BTC's direction !
Now let's discuss about your comment !
Currently I agreed with your idea about huge purchases...
How ever I believe in 40K that become BTC's low on this bull run
But there are few things that makes BTC more bearish
- Saudi Arabia Banned Crypto today
- Some big holders are selling in this low ( 1 - 3 month holders )
- Biden's tax Presidency can become bad hell for BTCs ( How ever there is no correlation between them )
- Turkish Crypto exchanges are being shut down...
- South Korea is managing to shut down more than 200 exchanges until September !
- Gray Scale starts to sell BTC and Invest into Altcoin ( This will lead the dominance more lower )
These are new bearish fundamentals !
Which can rejects BTC's prices badly
But all of them are for short term..
Everyone knows that BTC won't stop below 65K level..
1BigPapi
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@Helical_Trades, thank you Sir, all very good information. I am curious, do you have more information on Grayscale move into altcoins? I base a portion of my portfolio on Grayscale, and found it interesting that their last big buys were of stuff like Litecoin, Chainlink, BAT, MANA, etc. Are they expanding into even more coins beyond that?
Helical_Trades
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@misterbumble, It's my pleasure dear !
For now they are managing to but huge volume Altcoins..
There will be alternative investments on potential coins with great projects..
But it's not confirmed yet..
I will manage to share it on TV for next analyzes.
@misterbumble, we've already been basing for several weeks now.
Helical_Trades
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@stckpkr70009c, May he points for a continuation..
By the way you mentioned the right word !
Also I didn't noticed it..
Thanks for your Help dear ;)
1BigPapi
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@stckpkr70009c, hi, I'm still learning some of the more technical terms in crypto, can you tell me what you mean by basing? I tried to Google but didn't find anything.
I think there was a very healthy liquidation after the flash dump last weekend. That liquidated billions in assets in just an hour. And now the fear greed index is very fearful.
But also I think whales already absorbed a lot of retail investment through March and also after that dump. If you look at Coinbase OTC there were as many new whale accounts made (over 8,000 Bitcoin purchases) in the past ~7 weeks as we saw in the 3 years previous. It makes me feel like that is a confirmation that we are close to the floor on this particular pattern. I don't see us falling below 40k without a very significant effort since we know most of industry is buying in between 48 and 60k this past 7 weeks.. and while I can't see their analysis that they used to decide to purchase, they surely have better experts than you and me. But that is only my speculation, I have no way to prove it.