Recently I've been looking at Bitcoin in a more long-term bullish perspective. Very decent probability that the bottom is either in, or very near. In any case, it's too early to determine whether the bottom is actually in or not, but I still find it interesting to explore different scenarios. Keeping an open mind is always good when looking at long-term price movements.
Bullish / Green: 2015-2017 took 1064 days 2018-2021 took 1064 days
Bearish / Red: 2017-2018 took 364 days 2021-2022 took 364 days
Coincidence? Maybe. In any case it's interesting to see that the market is seemingly following a similar time path. If the market were to follow the same path like in the previous cycle, we can assume that the bottom is indeed in. But again, it's too early to say, especially looking at the current market conditions.
Note: I'm aware that the market made new lows last week by a $100 difference, I'm accepting this 0.64% difference as an error margin.
Do you think this is the bottom? Explain why you (don't) think so below🙏.
Below there's another long-term bullish BTC analysis, please take a look.
With zero confirmation yet and potential for an easy -30%, it's clearly not over.
Shivaz
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so nice analyse but i think 64000 is real top. sec top is big faje break out :) should set time after first top on 64k sec top close to 69k is not real with others indicator or onchain data or btc/oil can see better what is real top GL nice analyse
FieryTrading
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@Shivaraax, Agree that most indicators (on and off-chain) topped at 64k in Q2-2021. Still, I think price is one of the most important 'indicators', so 69k is definitely usable.
Shivaz
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@FieryTrading, Yes, price is one of the most important indicators, but there are many factors in it And the most important thing is the value of money A bitcoin is always a bitcoin But when you measure bitcoin with dollars, then the analysis I said is correct Because the intrinsic value of a dollar and the rate of inflation affect that price When you're facing 10% inflation, $69,000 might have less intrinsic value than $64 Bitcoin, which has less inflation.
alpbrk
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For this time I don't agree but thanks a lot for your guidance as always. BlockFi files for bankruptcy, Genesis and Grayscale news are coming This is absolutely not the bottom imo
FieryTrading
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@alpbrk, Fair enough. So when do you think we will bottom out?
KoDPrey
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I have a little different point of view:
JamesLeblancTheRealist
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@KoDPrey, Accumulation period will be on the same level for months and it wont be V shaped. Literally look at every single previous bear market; 3K in 2017-2018 occurred for months.
KoDPrey
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@JamesLeblancTheRealist, Not really in accumulation period we went to 15K and then fall down. Halving period started later and it was blow up. Im expecting same situation that for some time we might stay low but later we will go up, and go down, go up and go down - before 4th halving.
Solldy
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Nice work, mate! Totally agree with your way of thinking, and the news supports the idea)