Price will always be contained to the 1.25 stdev of the longest overexpanded period once compression begins.
Bitcoin, without a doubt, will revert to exactly the 50 MA the the 110 MA on the four hour chart before trend could even have a chance to continue.
Price will not leave the blue band until the reversion completes and the wave PM reading of the 110 period reads below 0.7.
In two days time, I will update this chart with exactly that scenario.
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I went ahead and loaded up the higher resolution version of 3D wave PM on a shorter timeframe to more accurately represent the longest over expanded period. The longest over expanded period on the 1h chart is the 275 Period. A CCI roll down of the 27 period on the 1h chart will best identify the entry into the mean reversion condition. More accurately than the previous listed value of the 4h 50 MA, BTC will now revert exactly to the 275 MA before trend continuation is possible.
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For clarity, I have pointed out what each value is and how we are approaching ideal entry.
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Here is the higher resolution on the shorter timeframe. Trade still active.
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Here's every time this signal has fired in the last 25 days. It has not failed a single time in that period, my confidence is not unwarranted.
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We're almost there folks. Buckle up.
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As per the lower resolution target, we have retraced to the 4h 50 MA with 100% certainty. Our other two targets will be on their way shortly.
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Price will trade laterally as defined by the longest over expanded period's 1.25 standard deviation as long as that period has a mass reading above the 0.7 value. You'll notice as soon as the volatility overhead evaporates and reads below the 0.7 value, price immediately begins to escape the 1.25 standard deviation, voiding the mean reversion condition. If the condition evaporates, you no longer expect mean reversion. Perfectly enough, price began its new trend the same candle that the 275 mass reading read below 0.7.
@vetal0550, OP knows what he is doing, been following his analisis closely. 100% is of course never true but the mean reversion concept seems to work excellently
DadShark
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@pashqual, The mean reversion signal is rare but effective. In 13 months of backtesting and live trading on the 1h chart it has yet to fail.
TheCryptAlpha
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In trading there is nothing 100% certain. I would highly recommend you reconsider your trading
BrittTheIsh
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@TheCryptAlpha, you didn’t read anything did you? Just the title and then the comment
DadShark
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@TheCryptAlpha, @sintal1ty, Hit play. We have hit first target with 100% certainty. My trading ideas are more than clickbait. @vetal0550, It is not a joke. While your skepticism was healthy, it is misplaced.
UnknownUnicorn533020
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@DadShark, I don't care what you think happened reality is.
The original chart was Bitfinex the last update was Bitmex there is over 100$ price difference between the exchanges you are cherry picking charts and use double speak saying it will do one of 2 things when the price merely moved less than 2%.
You stated price would move down to the 50ma 100%.
What really went down?
The market was in an obvious flag bound by the RSI 50 level on the daily. So price didn't move down to the 50ma the 50ma simply caught up with the price.
The only reason I made a comment is you said 100%.
DadShark
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@sintal1ty, ok
DadShark
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@sintal1ty, Mean reversion as a condition can be a lateral move or a trending move. In this scenario, it is a lateral move. That is what makes mean reversion such a high probability function.
Are you sure you're not commenting because you left my server in a fit after I inferred that buying a coin "based on how other people feel" is a bad idea?
Yes, the price moved less than two percent. I predicted that it would move less than two percent. Price is defined by the range of a mean reversion. That's the point. Read the idea. Or read. At all. Just don't trade on your feelings and don't make tradingview comments on your feelings, though your lack of restraint so far is telling.
Best of luck in your future endeavors!
UnknownUnicorn533020
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@DadShark, Looks like I hurt your feelings. Sry brother.