DLavrov

$1M Trading Challenge: Week 3 - Expectation

FTX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
I had to spend enough time thinking about what to write in a new trading report. The reason is that I didn't have a lot of action during the 3rd week.
I planned my trades based on reversal setups from the support areas. I marked them in the daily chart for better understanding "where" and "how" I wanted to trade. So, please, look at them. I had reasons to open long positions and expect maybe not a new bullish trend , but at least a correction of the downward movement from the ATHs.

The market didn't move upward. There were several attempts but the bulls failed. My trades were closed by stop. That's all. What should I say about it? Why the market didn't move upward in spite of bullish setups at support? Well, it doesn't matter. Sometimes our trading ideas allow us to make a profit and sometimes not. It is part of any profitable trading. It is the reality. If some of you think that every day you can make money through trading... I guess you will be disappointed one day.

What is really important?
It is how we manage trading risks and our capital. It makes the difference between profitable trading and a failure in the distance. When I opened long positions using bullish setups, of course, I considered the situations when the price would move against my positions. For me, the main goal was to keep the balance between trading risks and potential profit. And of course, I had to do all my best in order not to overload my capital with long positions. I didn't want to lock all my fiat in crypto at the beginning of a new bearish trend . Every time I opened a new long position I thought much more about the price movements against me than in the direction of my trade.

As a result, when the price moved below the major support levels and lines in the BTCUSD and altcoins markets, I didn't have emotions about it. That dump was amazing! I stayed absolutely calm because, in all my trades, money and risk management ideas, the whole work I considered such a bearish movement. The price closed the main part of my long positions and I stayed with trades that I planned to keep for the bearish period and the future averaging. I followed the plan!

I like situations when the market moves against you, but you don't care, because you planned all your trades properly. Because you follow the exact trading plan and ideas, and you don't need to think about what to do in a stressful situation. Just follow the plan!
I like such situations as they clearly show why it is so important to have a trading plan, work carefully considering both directions in the market, and manage trading risks and money in the right way. From this point, I made a good job. Not perfect, but very good!

As a result, I finished the week in about 10% floating drawdown where 3-4% from the whole drawdown took 5 tokens. These tokens I bought for the long-term goals and I was not going to close them in the bearish market, just rebalance if needed. As for the other 5-6% of the drawdown, it came from my attempts to catch the price reversals from the support and join a new upward movement. I paid for such opportunities. That time they didn't work, but next time they will give a good profit. I'm absolutely sure in the trading setups and patterns I used.

Bitcoin moved downward for about 22% for the same week and about 28% for the whole month.


How will the market move further?
I have no ideas as well as there are no traders, investors, experts who can be sure in the further market movement. I don't care! I don't have a goal to predict the future. My main trading principle is simple - I follow the market but do not predict the future.

I keep following my trading plan. I have about 80% in fiat and I'm ready to open new long positions at new support and go short at resistance. I keep holding tokens with great potential which I'm going to rebalance as soon as the crypto market will reach the real bottom. I stay with some Bitcoin and Polkadot positions which I will average as well.

I don't care in which direction the market will move further. It will be great if it moves upward, and I will have an opportunity to make some profit. If it moves downward, it will be great as well. There will be amazing trade opportunities at better prices. So, why not enjoy the bearish period as well as the bullish one?

So, the 3rd week was good but it was more about an expectation of an upward movement! I didn't force my trades and tried to be very careful with any trading decisions.

We saw a very good dump which confirmed the bearish trend . I keep watching for the price action and I would like to see the price at the new major support. I'm not going to rush and buy coins between the key levels. I think to optimize my trading approach considering new information and experience. Maybe in the future, I will replace swing trading with day trading just in order to move faster and cover the delay of the starting period. But I'm not sure yet. From my point of view, my trading plan works very well and I like to trade following it! It is a very important feeling!



P.S. For those, who need proof of my work... every week I share all my trades, trading ideas, thoughts, and how I manage my positions and capital in "Trader's Notes". I can't share it with you here. But all information is verified and shared with the community.

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