Introduction
I have seen quite a few blow off tops while I have been in crypto and of course bitcoin's is the most famous. One of the most annoying things about charting is when you have to redraw your lines over and over based off the price action. Typically triangles get bigger and bigger or wedges get bigger and bigger and and blow off tops are typified by rising wedges that break down into an even larger wising wedge, and that wedge breaks up and we have our blow off top.
Charting
The bold black trend line is our wedge resistance and it is damn near straight up. The 2017-18 structure has a purple solid line for the smaller wedge support and the blue line shows the larger wedge support. The bollinger band is set for the weekly timeframe and only shows the midline and top because of how the bottom can distort the chart.
The right chart formation our current structure. The blue and purple trendlines are dashed because they are still preliminary. The buy box is a previous ATH that help set up the black trendline that defines the wedge resistance.
Trades implied in this post (without giving advice on any)
Zooming in
On our last cycle we still consolidated on top of the black trend line of the large rising wedge. From there we had a large squirt up and then formed another very tight rising wedge for the topping structure which lead into a descending triangle. In other words, there was about a month where people could have traded out of their bitcoin trades into stable coins or alts that were moving upward.
This cycle appears to be moving much faster. You may not get a whole month to cycle out if you are so inclined.
Also shown is the fib channels with green anchors to show where the points of contact are. I have found the fib channel to be very useful, especially in charts like BTC where there are double bottoms with have higher lows on the zero line. Due to volatility of blow off tops I can't guarantee any particular level if BTC breaks out of its rising wedge and then forms a topping pattern between any two fib levels that will be a major sign for me to cut bait on bitcoin. I do have a current forecast of reaching the 2 and ultimately bottoming out on a return to just above the 1 level.
Just for Funsies for the Never Sellers out there
Here is a chart that shows the 3 level extension for the never sellers out there who will just be accumulating through everything a little every paycheck and maybe buying more on big red moves.
I have seen quite a few blow off tops while I have been in crypto and of course bitcoin's is the most famous. One of the most annoying things about charting is when you have to redraw your lines over and over based off the price action. Typically triangles get bigger and bigger or wedges get bigger and bigger and and blow off tops are typified by rising wedges that break down into an even larger wising wedge, and that wedge breaks up and we have our blow off top.
Charting
The bold black trend line is our wedge resistance and it is damn near straight up. The 2017-18 structure has a purple solid line for the smaller wedge support and the blue line shows the larger wedge support. The bollinger band is set for the weekly timeframe and only shows the midline and top because of how the bottom can distort the chart.
The right chart formation our current structure. The blue and purple trendlines are dashed because they are still preliminary. The buy box is a previous ATH that help set up the black trendline that defines the wedge resistance.
Trades implied in this post (without giving advice on any)
- Short until we get to the buy box with stops based on the rising wedge resistance. Very risky because we could still move higher into the current rising wedge.
- Buy in the buy box and have stops based on a very small wick. Permits for a tight stop for people that want to use a lot of margin.
Zooming in
On our last cycle we still consolidated on top of the black trend line of the large rising wedge. From there we had a large squirt up and then formed another very tight rising wedge for the topping structure which lead into a descending triangle. In other words, there was about a month where people could have traded out of their bitcoin trades into stable coins or alts that were moving upward.
This cycle appears to be moving much faster. You may not get a whole month to cycle out if you are so inclined.
Also shown is the fib channels with green anchors to show where the points of contact are. I have found the fib channel to be very useful, especially in charts like BTC where there are double bottoms with have higher lows on the zero line. Due to volatility of blow off tops I can't guarantee any particular level if BTC breaks out of its rising wedge and then forms a topping pattern between any two fib levels that will be a major sign for me to cut bait on bitcoin. I do have a current forecast of reaching the 2 and ultimately bottoming out on a return to just above the 1 level.
Just for Funsies for the Never Sellers out there
Here is a chart that shows the 3 level extension for the never sellers out there who will just be accumulating through everything a little every paycheck and maybe buying more on big red moves.
Comment:
We just printed a 3 day candle and so far we have three candles in a row. I say again, there is a high probability that this rising wedge breaks to the upside. Then, we find support on the top of the wedge and commence a blow off top. After that, about a year of consolidation.
We just printed a 3 day candle and so far we have three candles in a row. I say again, there is a high probability that this rising wedge breaks to the upside. Then, we find support on the top of the wedge and commence a blow off top. After that, about a year of consolidation.
And I promise every Floridian that you will all be rich... because we're gonna print some more money! Why didn't anybody ever think of this before?
~Nathan Explosion
~Nathan Explosion
The gains are going to be fast but transient if you are not adept.