BTC running out of steam

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
A quick TA on the BTCUSD charts!

In the past weeks, quite clearly we are seeing price action of BTC within a narrowing upward channel, holding quite diligently to the 50MA (in green).

However, we are starting to see weakness in the bulls as volume seems to be diminishing, and a clear MACD divergence printed. The ADX is also starting to show signs of weakness in momentum, and smaller DI divergence.

According to this analysis, unless the bulls come in strong, the likelihood of a 'distribution period' (see wyckoff market cycles) may be in play. We may see a 'spring' attempt to breakout from the narrowing upward channel only to result in a fakeout, followed by a dramatic markdown. Alternatively, if the 50MA and lower support trendline fails, the markdown may be sooner.
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