BITCOIN The dominance of 0.5 Fibonacci and why it is the BOTTOM.

First of all, don't be alarmed by the current selling. It is a technical and much necessary short term correction that will help in the buying accumulation process. I have clearly stated on the idea below that the 2020 rise was parabolic and at some point would break and pull back to its mid Fibonacci levels:


Secondly, you should be no strangers to the chart of the current study. I created this idea initially in October and was extremely accurate with calculating the $6500 bottom but I further developed it in January in order to predict the next top and pull back as seen below:


Since the top was made at $10500 we can now calculate not only the bottom (around $8300) but also the duration of this pull back (early April). I will explain my reasoning behind those levels in the following lines:


** Symmetrical Cycles and Fibonacci Boxes **
I don't want to go into much detail on this one as I've already explained the notion behind these Symmetrical Cycles on the two past analyses. The initial model cycle was the 2018 Bear Market. Then its "symmetrical" phase which was the correction that started with the June $13800 peak.

Now we are on the bear phase of this 3rd and final Symmetrical Cycle which started with the $6500 bottom and peaked at $10500. Why do I call the $10500 level a peak? Because of its place inside the "Fibonacci Box". This box consists of the Fibonacci retracement levels (log scale) on both the horizontal and vertical axis (price and time) creating a box. Each box fits inside the Bull and Bear phases of each Cycle. As you see the Top on both previous Cycles was made within the 0.5 and 0.618 Fibonacci extension and the current one also was no exception ($10500).


** The 0.5 Fibonacci Dominance **
The importance of the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level (on the horizontal axis) is basically the essence of the current study as it helps in identifying the bottom.
The bottom in 2018 was made just below the 0.5 Fibonacci (towards the 0.618) retracement level at $3200. The December 2019 bottom was also made on the 0.5 level ($6500). If we apply the same principle (bottom on the 0.5 Fib), then we should be expecting a bottom within $8500 - 8000.


** Timing the bottom **
A key factor that helped timing my $6500 Bottom projection was the fact that the Bear phase is 0.88*Bull phase. This put the end of the June 2019 correction (bottom) in early December 2019. Similarly, since the 2020 Bull run lasted 57 days, then its Bear (correction) phase should be 0.88*Bull phase = 50 days. That times the bottom/ end of this mini-cycle in early April!


Do you agree that the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level can give us the new bottom as we head towards May's Halving? Let me know in the comments section!

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BONUS MATERIAL: Another chart using Fibs showing why you should not be alarmed by the current selling:




See how this theory of Symmetrical Fib Cycles started in October with the following related material:



How the current study fits into my long term 2020 projection: