BTC/USD - Weekly Chart Falling Wedge Pattern and a P Wave

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
BTC is in a massive Falling Wedge Pattern. A Falling Wedge Pattern is potentially a Bullish Reversal Pattern. Note that the APEX of the Falling Wedge Pattern is around March/April 2024.

BTC is in a Negative Ichimoku P Wave Pattern. BTC has been in 2 Previous P Waves from the all time high and both P Waves ended with further drops to the downside.

BTC is also in a massive Ichimoku Y Wave Pattern. This gives us a new All Time High potential target for BTC if it does eventually rise and especially if its stays above the Lower Descending Trend-line of the Falling Wedge Pattern.

BTC is still deep in the Bearish Zone of the Ichimoku Cloud on this 1 Week timeframe. Note that we have already had a Kumo (Cloud) Twist into a RED Bearish Cloud on this 1 Week timeframe.

BTC is still below its 200MA. A successful WEEKLY CLOSE ABOVE the 200MA and successful re-test as support is crucial for any longterm uptrend to become viable. Note that BTC has closed 3 weekly candles below its 200MA.

BTC is still below its Least Squares Moving Average ( LSMA ) on this 1 Week timeframe.

BTC is still way below its Bollinger Bands Middle Band Basis 20 Period SMA . Note that both the Lower Band and Middle Band are pointing downwards and the Upper Band is pointing upwards but we may see the Upper Band curve and start moving downwards.

At the moment of typing this, BTC has found some resistance from its 78.60% Trend-Based Fib Extension Level.

At the moment BTC has found some support from its Descending Pitchfork Median Line .

The Black Horizontal Trend-line at around $17,588 is a crucial level to watch.

Looking at the Average Directional Index ( ADX DI) we can see that The Trend Strength is Strong with the ADX ( Orange Line) at 30.19 still above its 9 Period EMA (Black Line) at 24.70. Negative Momentum is slightly downwards with the -DI (Red Line) at 38.57 and Positive Momentum is also sideways within a range with the +DI (Green Line) at 12.18.

From my opinion, if you are waiting to go long with BTC /USD for the Mid to Longterm, i would air on the side of caution at the moment because i still believe that £12K is a huge possibility especially with inflation increasing to help pay back the trillions of $ and billions £ printed during the covid pandemic to prop up the stock market.

Mid to Longterm, we need to see a successful weekly close ABOVE the 78.60% Trend-Based Fib Extension level, the P Wave as well as the 200MA with a successful strong re-test as support on this 1 week timeframe. A successful close ABOVE the LSMA and successful re-test as support will also be a good sign of potential renewed Mid to Long-term upwards momentum. As usual, BTC needs to get back ABOVE and CLOSE a weekly candle ABOVE its BB Middle Band Basis. Until we see all of the above, then Mid to Longterm wise, it’s sideways within a range at best or downwards at worst.

Again this is all just my opinion so please do your own research as its your money.

I hope this is helpful with your Trading and Hodl-ing.


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