BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
The last time I wrote, on Saturday morning, we were at the red circle. I wrote as an addendum that I would be looking at successive red hourly candles to determine if we are going down to the lower blue line of the falling wedge ($30k region). I did not see the hourly candles, so I did not conclude that we were indeed going to $30k. Instead over the weekend the price moved up to the yellow circle area.

I also wrote that I didn't believe that the weekend always did the opposite of the week. I have seen it go both ways actually. What was more interesting is how the weekly candle closed. The weekly candle closed in the yellow circle area just above the white line: you can see that this white line is a very very important line, as the BTC price keeps visiting this white line over and over again.

The white line is important because it is the neckline of the Heads and Shoulders pattern. The neckline was broken 2 weeks ago, which signals a price drop to $17k with 85% reliability. However the weekly candle has yet to close below this neckline. Now while the weekly candle doesn't need to, (only the daily candle), it is interesting nonetheless that the weekly candle has yet to close below it. However, on Sunday the weekly candle closed exactly ON the neckline. I think that signal is too strong, and will signal a sudden drop and will be confirmed when the weekly candle this Sunday closes below the neckline.

The other line that is of interest that we keep on revisiting is the blue upper trend line of the falling wedge (circled in blue). You can see we are hovering around there right now. You will notice that we are just below where we were on Saturday morning, when I felt we were going back down to $30k. The weekend bulls tried to resist by pushing the price just above the neckline, but the market awoken on Monday morning and said NOPE and brought us back and removed all the weekend gains. This is a bearish signal for sure.

I use Elliott wave analysis to determine a change in direction. It is the most powerful tool you can use if you know how to use it. Always be mapping and remapping 5 impulsive waves, and 3 corrective waves, and then map subwaves, and map them in both directions to always be trying to prove yourself wrong. The impulsive waves have to be stronger than the corrective waves, and the waves should not overlap: Wave 4 cannot cross Wave 1, and Wave 3 cannot be the shortest - when you follow those rules, you know whether the overall market is bullish or bearish - it's as simple as that.

From $65k down to $29k is an impulsive subwave of a corrective wave (corrective of an overall impulsive wave to $100k+). If the wave from $65k down to $29k is impulsive, then the question we have to ask is: which is the Wave B, and where does the Wave C start? I think we finished a Wave B already (a sideways ABCDE pattern) and are currently on a Wave C. The persistence of the price to want to go back into the falling wedge area and stay below the neckline is affirmative of this theory. I will be looking for impulsive waves up to invalidate it, and so far I have not seen any impulse upward.

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