BTCUSD - BitStamp, Intermediate Term Bullish - (Updated)

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Since November 2013 High, we have been in wave (iv). Wave 4 are often complex. Well the price action has been complex since November high as can be seen by variation of my charts on Bitcons since then including the last one posted just 2 weeks ago.

However, overall whilst majority up to recently had been very bullish and were expecting to be in the region of 5000 by now, I have continued to maintain overall consolidation and bearish tone with conservative targets of retest of 340 or make new low around 280-260 zone. Many dismissed it and many clearly have made negative comments about my analysis. Often focusing on exactly where my line begin and end in terms of exact levels.

Whiles levels are important, is is not always possible to be so precise as some would expect form others when they themselves offer non except unhelpful criticism.

So this analysis is to be us3ed as general guide in the form of outline of the expected price action and where possible some levels which can be reinforced by some structure and fib relationship, but only as possibility.

In fact I am convinced that if any serious analyst was to focus on larger picture message then this my approach could be helpful. It has kept many from suffering massive drawdown or loss of profit by avoiding long position from November 2013 ATH or entering new longs from those higher levels.

So as an update to last published chart, whilst the low expected has taken place at lower level, overall picture is still the same with minor variance.

This is now shown as Larger ABC zizgag with Wave C needing 5 waves. This is clearly now shown on chart as potential ending diagonal (referred to as 3-3-3-3-3), which has already began or is about to being wave (iv) in blue. Text Book schematic diagram is shown to help understand the overall pattern. The upside could be 480-500 zone

Should this outline develop then we could see another leg lower from 480-500 zone retesting the recent low or making marginal lower low for form around Mid December 2014. On completion of which a major new bullish cycle could unfold which might at least approach the November all time high or make new higher high.

To me that is the most significant message of this analysis with proviso that the Ending diagonal explained above forms.

You are free to disagree, but for serious analyst this might be of interest and take it for what it is. Hope you find it interesting.
First, thanks for this chart ; I'm still discovering EW but some of your calls hitted very nicely and your charts are helpfull.

I've tried to do some wave counts and I was thinking "what if C (and (v)) already happened on 5th Oct ?"
Would it be a possible correct count ?

Also you stated "we could see another leg lower from 480-500 zone retesting the recent low or making marginal lower low for form around Mid December 2014."
Does this mean the last days $300 could be the end of ABC correction and marking the (V) beginning ?
Said another way : could the blue (v) only have hit $300, being above (iii) which was on 275 ?

Hen0xyd Hen0xyd
For my first question, maybe it will be more clear with a chart :
DanV Hen0xyd
Thanks for your question. The bounce of October low is abc zigzag retracement of previous decline from your label c. that is not the start of a new bullish cycle which is what you would expect if you are correct. The decline since Nov high is part of the final leg and is relatively too small for it to be acceptable wave 5 of c on my chart. Mid Dec date was anticipated as earlier possible low some time ago. Clearly that has not happened yet so the final low is likely to be some time in Jan/Feb. So we need to wait for this last cycle to complete.

Also the labels you are proposing as part of wave C has been suggested by quite a few analyst when the Oct low was being formed and were expecting new bullish cycle which I do not feel is the case. Some have even suggested that the abc zizgag of the ow is in fact 1,2, i,ii sequence of new Bullish cycle. This has been now shown to be incorrect.

Hope this helps.
+1 Reply
Yes, this helps, thank you Dan for answering to an EW beginner like me.
I need to learn/practice more to be sure I understand correctly advanced counting, sequences and consequently some of your remarks. Still I think I understood most of your comment :)
DanV Hen0xyd
Great, I am pleased.
Dan, you see a retest of 305/310 coming now? http://i.imgur.com/auANEH1.png
DanV bitafik
Whilst no guarantees could be given, there is likelihood of possible retest of 300 at least if not higher,
So it all boils down to what happens here in this box. Either it follows RED bearish OR BLUE Bullish. Even then bullish is now limited. I think the high is in place.
+3 Reply
soap DanV
Looks like a RED :(
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